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Author : Michael M. Hutchison
Publisher :
Page : 3 pages
File Size : 22,97 MB
Release : 1999
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Mr.Martin Cihak
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 35,72 MB
Release : 2009-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451871562
The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance of early identification of weak banks: when problems are identified late, solutions are much more costly. Until recently, Europe has seen only a small number of outright bank failures, which made the estimation of early warning models for bank supervision very difficult. This paper presents a unique database of individual bank distress across the European Union from mid-1990s to 2008. Using this data set, we analyze the causes of banking distress in Europe. We identify a set of indicators and thresholds that can help to distinguish sound banks from those vulnerable to financial distress.
Author : Ms. Sally Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 79 pages
File Size : 12,6 MB
Release : 2021-04-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513582305
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
Author : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 15,97 MB
Release : 1999-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451858930
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Author : Jens Michael Rabe
Publisher : diplom.de
Page : 84 pages
File Size : 28,58 MB
Release : 2000-03-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3832422552
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflicted substantial financial, economic, and social damage on the countries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiency of early warning indicators for these disastrous economic events is evaluated. An analysis of the traditional and recent literature on currency crises is performed in order to extract potential early warning indicators that are suggested by theory. Alongside others, these candidate indicators are tested in alternative empirical studies that are reviewed in this work. The results are mixed, but somewhat encouraging for further research in this field. Furthermore, the analysis is extended to a critique of systems of early warning indicators currently used by international institutions. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction1 2.The Currency Crisis Literature as a Reference Point for the Identification of Early Warning Indicators4 2.1The Traditional Theory5 2.2Second Generation Models11 2.3A Cross-generation Framework Proposition19 2.4Early Warning Indicators as Suggested by Theory22 3.The Empirical Assessment of Early Warning Indicators24 3.1Univariate Indicators for Financial Crises24 3.1.1Cross-Country Regressions26 3.1.2Multivariate Probit Models35 3.1.3The Signals Approach40 3.2Composite Leading Indicators for Financial Crises48 4.A Critique of Early Warning Indicators Used in Practice53 5.Conclusion64 Appendix68 Bibliography69
Author : Morris Goldstein
Publisher : Peterson Institute
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 37,93 MB
Release : 2000
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780881322378
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Author : Qaiser Munir
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 27,47 MB
Release : 2016
Category : BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
ISBN : 9781466694842
Addresses the inequity of developed and developing nations from the bottom up through an exploration of current literature, specific case-studies, and data-based recommendations for new crisis indicators. It explores such topics as the Greek debt crisis, electronic banking, and financial crises in developing economies.
Author : Jim Wong
Publisher :
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 50,63 MB
Release : 2007
Category :
ISBN :
This study develops a probit econometric model to identify a set of leading indicators of banking distress and estimate banking distress probability for Hong Kong and other EMEAP economies. Macroeconomic fundamentals, currency crisis vulnerability, credit risk of banks and companies, asset price bubbles, credit growth, and the occurrence of distress of other economies in the region are found to be important leading indicators of banking distress in the home economy. The predictive power of the model is reasonably good. A case study of Hong Kong based on the latest estimate of banking distress probability and stress testing results shows that currently the banking sector in Hong Kong is healthy and should be able to withstand well certain possible adverse shocks. Under some extreme shocks originating from real GDP growth and property prices such as those that occurred during the Asian financial crisis, the model indicates a non-negligible risk of an occurrence of banking distress in Hong Kong. However, the chances of the occurrence of such severe events are extremely low. Simulation results also suggest that compared to the period before the Asian financial crisis, the local banking sector is currently more capable of withstan ding shocks similar to those that occurred during that crisis. The study also finds that banking distress is contagious, suggesting that to be effective in monitoring banking distress, close cooperation between central banks should be in place.
Author : Marcin Pietrzak
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 18,20 MB
Release : 2021-07-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513593005
This paper shows how the role of Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) in financial surveillance can be usefully enhanced. Drawing from different statistical techniques, the paper illustrates that FSIs generate signals that can accurately detect, with 4 to 12 quarters lead, emerging financial distress—as measured by tight financial conditions.
Author : Mr.Hyun Song Shin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 23,32 MB
Release : 2013-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484320832
This paper compares three types of early warning indicators of financial instability – those based on financial market prices, those based on normalized measures of total credit and those based on liabilities of financial intermediaries. Prices perform well as concurrent indicators of market conditions but are not suitable as early warning indicators. Total credit and liabilities convey similar information and perform better as early warning indicators, but liabilities are more transparent and the decomposition between core and non-core liabilities convey additional useful information.