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For Masters and PhD students in EconomicsIn this textbook, the duality between the equilibrium concept used in dynamic economic theory and the stationarity of economic variables is explained and used in the presentation of single equations models and system of equations such as VARs, recursive models and simultaneous equations models.The book also contains chapters on: exogeneity, in the context of estimation, policy analysis and forecasting; automatic (computer based) variable selection, and how it can aid in the specification of an empirical macroeconomic model; and finally, on a common framework for model-based economic forecasting.Supplementary materials and notes are available on the publisher's website.
This work describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting new insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.
Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.
Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World Towards a Common Approach Edited by Chris Allen and Stephen Hall Practical economic model building has changed enormously over the last twenty years. Econometrics has become much more sophisticated with the introduction of cointegration and non-stationary time series analysis. The use of economic theory in the form of complex non-linear cross equation restrictions is now much more widespread and the explicit modelling of expectations and credibility effects is more satisfactory. This has meant that the old style macroeconomic models which were complex by virtue of their size alone have been replaced by a generation of new models which embody complex theory and estimation to provide more superior forecasting and policy tools. Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World outlines the modelling approach which has been adopted at the Centre for Economic Forecasting at the London Business School, one of the world’s leading research institutes into macroeconomic modelling, in building its own models. Using explicit examples and illustrations, the authors examine the latest state-of-the-art models, and answer questions such as: How are modern econometrics used by model builders? How should we deal with structural change? How should expectations be modelled? How are models used in practice? Economics
This is the second edition, essentially a completely newly written state of the art introduction into the field of macro-econometric models. Its first focus is to present the different specifications and strands of ideas of macro-econometric models, its empirical and analytical uses in economic policy, economic theory, economic history and empirical applications. It documents the intellectual achievements and performance of applied macroeconomic models in general, theoretically and by typical and representative illustrations, leading the reader to the frontiers of present research. Secondly, the book is an introductory text into the bibliography of macro models, which is the background of the monograph. Recalling the field of macro-econometric models, there are additional appendices, e.g. explaining the keywords which cover this territory of economic knowledge, and documenting the huge use of such models. A multilingual cross-reference dictionary (German, English, French, Spanish, Italian) concludes the book.
Provides an overview and exploration of methodologies, models, and techniques used to analyze forces shaping national economies. This title presents a range of methods for characterizing and evaluating empirical implications, including calibration exercises, method-of-moment procedures, and likelihood-based procedures, both classical and Bayesian.
This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading. Topics covered include unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks, time aggregation, forecasting, the Kalman filter, generalised method of moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, vector autoregressive, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and dynamic panel models. Presenting the most important models and techniques for empirical research, this Handbook will appeal to students, researchers and academics working in empirical macro and econometrics.
This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.