[PDF] Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Commodity Markets eBook

Author : Abby Kim
Publisher :
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 34,88 MB
Release : 2016
Category :
ISBN :

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This paper examines how speculative futures trading affects commodity markets in terms of price impacts, volatility, and market quality. Contrary to the popular belief that speculators are responsible for the recent commodity price fluctuation, my analysis finds no evidence that speculators destabilize the spot market. Instead, speculators contribute to lower volatility and enhanced market quality. More importantly, the empirical results provide strong evidence that speculators either have no effect or dampen prices during periods of large price movement. My findings suggest speculators have had a significant, and in fact positive, influence on the commodity market during the recent "financialization" period, implying that restricting speculative trading in the futures market is not an efficient way to stabilize the commodity market.

Author : Raffael Waldmeier
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 32,47 MB
Release : 2017
Category :
ISBN :

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This master thesis analyses the impact of speculation on the stability of the commodity futures market. The study differentiates between three types of speculation, namely index speculation, non-commercial speculation and excess speculation. In a Vector AutoRegression (VAR) framework I use Granger causality analyses and impulse response functions (IRF) in order to analyse, whether speculation activities have a significant impact on the commodity futures price volatility or not. In particular, the scope of the analysis includes two energy commodities, crude oil and natural gas, an agricultural commodity, corn, and two metals, copper and gold. Applying a relatively new dataset for index investment trading, it shows that index investment had not significantly affected price volatility in the commodity market between 2007 and 2015. In exchange, the results suggest that index speculation rather reduced volatility than the other way around. The same is true for non-commercial or traditional speculation, which neither has destabilized commodity markets during the analysed period between 1993 and 2016. Moreover, the sample is split into two sub-periods in order to analyse possible changes in the dynamics of the commodity markets due to the financialization. Finally, contrasting the findings of the other analyses, it shows that excess speculation had indeed caused an increase in commodity futures prices. The findings suggest that excess speculation had a significant detrimental effect on the stability of the crude oil market. The diversity in the findings emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the different types of speculation. Altogether, it shows that speculation does, in general, not increase futures price volatility.

Author : Tobias Thürer
Publisher : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
Page : 222 pages
File Size : 20,74 MB
Release : 2016-02-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3832538763

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Since the mid 2000s, an increasing financialization of commodity futures markets is taking place. This has fueled an ongoing discussion about the effect of financial investments on the development of commodity prices. Against this background, the trading activities of financial speculators also come to the fore. There is the concern that such speculators can cause irrational overshootings of agricultural commodity prices, e.g. in the event of global production shocks. In such an event the decrease of total supply induces a price surge menacing food security in developing countries. Yet, the question emerges whether speculation aggravates this price increase, eventually inducing a price bubble. The relevance of this concern is reinforced by the fact that due to climate change an increased frequency and severity of global agricultural production shortfalls is at stake. If speculation evokes an additional threat to food security in the event of a production shock, the political agenda should not be confined to focus solely on the adaptation to climate change. Instead, it is then also necessary to address speculative activities on agricultural commodity markets. This book scrutinises whether speculative bubbles can be identified in the event of severe global production shocks. For this, a framework for tracing the transmission of the futures price's development on the spot market is developed. Using annual data from 1979-2012 for maize it is analysed whether production shock related price bubbles occurred.

Author : Joëlle Miffre
Publisher :
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 34,37 MB
Release : 2015
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This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of the financialization of commodity futures markets by studying the conditional volatility of long-short commodity portfolios and their conditional correlations with traditional assets (stocks and bonds). Using several groups of trading strategies that hedge fund managers are known to implement, we show that long-short speculators do not cause changes in the volatilities of the portfolios they hold or changes in the conditional correlations between these portfolios and traditional assets. Thus calls for increased regulation of commodity money managers are, at this stage, premature. Additionally, long-short speculators can take comfort in knowing that their trades do not alter the risk and diversification properties of their portfolios.

Author : Scott H. Irwin
Publisher : CABI
Page : 279 pages
File Size : 36,66 MB
Release : 2023-04-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1800622082

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Commodity futures prices exploded in 2007-2008 and concerns about a new type of speculative participant in commodity futures markets began to emerge. The main argument was that unprecedented buying pressure from new "commodity index" investors created massive bubbles that resulted in prices substantially exceeding fundamental value. At the time, it was not uncommon to link concerns about speculation and high prices to world hunger, food crises, and civil unrest. Naturally, this outcry resulted in numerous regulatory proposals to restrict speculation in commodity futures markets. This book presents important research on the impact of index investment on commodity futures prices that the authors conducted over the last fifteen years. The eleven articles presented in the book follow the timeline of our involvement in the world-wide debate about index funds as it evolved after 2007. We also include an introductory chapter, new author forewords for each article chapter, and a lessons learned chapter to round out the book. Policy-makers, researchers, and market participants will find the book not only functions as useful documentation of the debate; but, also as a natural starting point when high commodity prices inevitably create the next speculation backlash.

Author : Carley Garner
Publisher : FT Press
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 10,3 MB
Release : 2010-07-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0132478986

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This is the eBook version of the printed book. This Element is an excerpt from A Trader's First Book on Commodities: An Introduction to the World's Fastest Growing Market (9780137015450) by Carley Garner. Available in print and digital formats. Why futures are so valuable to speculators–and why speculation could help you earn life-changing profits. I encourage traders to come to futures and options for the right reasons and know what to expect when they get there. Along with significant risk of loss, there is potential for significant profits. That is why speculators flock to the markets and what keeps them coming back. For those with the willingness and the capital to speculate, the futures and options on futures markets offer some glaring advantages over other vehicles.

Author : S. Ghosh
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 31,49 MB
Release : 1987
Category : Commodity control
ISBN :

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After briefly reviewing the problems caused by commodity price instability, the authors develop a mathematical model for commodity markets. The implications of this model for intervention and the welfare effects are then considered. A fully developed model of the world copper market is usedto investigate alternative buffer stock intervention rules in order to assess the scope and limitations of such stabilization strategies.