[PDF] Do We Really Know That Flexible Exchange Rates Facilitate Current Account Adjustment Some New Empirical Evidence For Cee Countries eBook

Author : Sabine Herrmann
Publisher :
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 34,34 MB
Release : 2016
Category :
ISBN :

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This paper examines the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the pace of current account adjustment. The panel data set we refer to includes 11 catching-up countries from central, eastern and south-eastern Europe between 1994 and 2007. The exchange rate regime is measured by a continuous z-score measure of exchange rate volatility proposed by Gosh, Gulde and Wolf (2003). Based on a basic autoregression estimation, the results indicate that a more flexible exchange rate regime significantly enhances the rate of current account adjustment.

Author : Menzie David Chinn
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 22,14 MB
Release : 2008
Category : Balance of payments
ISBN :

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The assertion that a flexible exchange rate regime would facilitate current account adjustment is often repeated in policy circles. In this paper, we compile a data set encompassing data for over 170 countries are included, over the 1971-2005 period, and examine whether the rate of current account reversion depends upon the de facto degree of exchange rate fixity, as measured by two popular indices. We find that there is no strong, robust, or monotonic relationship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of current account reversion, even after accounting for the degree of economic development, the degree of trade and capital account openness. We also find that the endogenous selection of exchange rate regimes does not explain the observed lack of correlation.

Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 41,51 MB
Release : 2014-01-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484383974

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This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs over 1980-2011, show that macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities are significantly greater under less flexible intermediate regimes—including hard pegs—as compared to floats. While not especially susceptible to banking or currency crises, hard pegs are significantly more prone to growth collapses, suggesting that the security of the hard end of the prescription is largely illusory. Intermediate regimes as a class are the most susceptible to crises, but “managed floats”—a subclass within such regimes—behave much more like pure floats, with significantly lower risks and fewer crises. “Managed floating,” however, is a nebulous concept; a characterization of more crisis prone regimes suggests no simple dividing line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes.

Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 32,65 MB
Release : 2014-08-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484331451

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Milton Friedman argued that flexible exchange rates would facilitate external adjustment. Recent studies find surprisingly little robust evidence that they do. We argue that this is because they use composite (or aggregate) exchange rate regime classifications, which often mask very heterogeneous bilateral relationships between countries. Constructing a novel dataset of bilateral exchange rate regimes that differentiates by the degree of exchange rate flexibility, as well as by direct and indirect exchange rate relationships, for 181 countries over 1980–2011, we find a significant and empirically robust relationship between exchange rate flexibility and the speed of external adjustment. Our results are supported by several “natural experiments” of exogenous changes in bilateral exchange rate regimes.

Author : T. Bracke
Publisher : Springer
Page : 234 pages
File Size : 17,72 MB
Release : 2012-09-18
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1137034831

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Emerging Europe has suffered a severe economic crisis in recent years, and is only gradually recovering; the prospects for a convergence with the rest of the EU are still uncertain. In this book policymakers, high-level practitioners and experts from central banks identify the main reasons for the crisis and the challenges for the recovery process.

Author : Philip R. Lane
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 31,75 MB
Release : 2007-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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Although Europe in the aggregate is a not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the macroeconomic impact on Europe of global current account adjustment under alternative scenarios, emphasizing both trade and financial channels. Finally, we consider heterogeneous exposure across individual European economies to external adjustment shocks.

Author : Jesper Lindé
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 20,43 MB
Release : 2017-07-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484306112

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We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.

Author : Michael Emerson
Publisher :
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 21,79 MB
Release : 1992
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780198773245

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The European Community is negotiating a new treaty to establish the constitutional foundations of an economic and monetary union in the course of the 1990s. This study provides the only comprehensive guide to the economic implications of economic and monetary union. The work of an economist inside the Commission of the European Community, it reflects the considerations influencing the design of the union. The study creates a unique bridge between the insights of modern economic analysis and the work of the policy makers preparing for economic and monetary union.