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Author : Franz Huber
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 49,91 MB
Release : 2008-12-21
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 1402091982
This anthology is the first book to give a balanced overview of the competing theories of degrees of belief. It also explicitly relates these debates to more traditional concerns of the philosophy of language and mind and epistemic logic.
Author : Steven G. Vick
Publisher : ASCE Publications
Page : 469 pages
File Size : 38,59 MB
Release : 2002-01-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 0784470863
Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Author : Michael G. Titelbaum
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 362 pages
File Size : 34,85 MB
Release : 2013
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0199658307
This book presents a new Bayesian framework for modeling rational degrees of belief, called the Certainty-Loss Framework.
Author : David Christensen
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 33,76 MB
Release : 2004-11-04
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0199263256
What role, if any, does formal logic play in characterizing epistemically rational belief? Traditionally, belief is seen in a binary way - either one believes a proposition, or one doesn't. Given this picture, it is attractive to impose certain deductive constraints on rational belief: that one's beliefs be logically consistent, and that one believe the logical consequences of one's beliefs. A less popular picture sees belief as a graded phenomenon. This picture (explored more bydecision-theorists and philosophers of science thatn by mainstream epistemologists) invites the use of probabilistic coherence to constrain rational belief. But this latter project has often involved defining graded beliefs in terms of preferences, which may seem to change the subject away fromepistemic rationality.Putting Logic in its Place explores the relations between these two ways of seeing beliefs. It argues that the binary conception, although it fits nicely with much of our commonsense thought and talk about belief, cannot in the end support the traditional deductive constraints on rational belief. Binary beliefs that obeyed these constraints could not answer to anything like our intuitive notion of epistemic rationality, and would end up having to be divorced from central aspects of ourcognitive, practical, and emotional lives.But this does not mean that logic plays no role in rationality. Probabilistic coherence should be viewed as using standard logic to constrain rational graded belief. This probabilistic constraint helps explain the appeal of the traditional deductive constraints, and even underlies the force of rationally persuasive deductive arguments. Graded belief cannot be defined in terms of preferences. But probabilistic coherence may be defended without positing definitional connections between beliefsand preferences. Like the traditional deductive constraints, coherence is a logical ideal that humans cannot fully attain. Nevertheless, it furnishes a compelling way of understanding a key dimension of epistemic rationality.
Author : Hannes Leitgeb
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 49,83 MB
Release : 2017-03-24
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0191047015
In everyday life we normally express our beliefs in all-or-nothing terms: I believe it is going to rain; I don't believe that my lottery ticket will win. In other cases, if possible, we resort to numerical probabilities: my degree of belief that it is going to rain is 80%; the probability that I assign to my ticket winning is one in a million. It is an open philosophical question how all-or-nothing belief and numerical belief relate to each other, and how we ought to reason with them simultaneously. The Stability of Belief develops a theory of rational belief that aims to answer this question. Hannes Leitgeb develops a joint normative theory of all-or-nothing belief and numerical degrees of belief. While rational all-or-nothing belief is studied in traditional epistemology and is usually assumed to obey logical norms, rational degrees of belief constitute the subject matter of Bayesian epistemology and are normally taken to conform to probabilistic norms. One of the central open questions in formal epistemology is what beliefs and degrees of belief have to be like in order for them to cohere with each other. The answer defended in this book is a stability account of belief: a rational agent believes a proposition just in case the agent assigns a stably high degree of belief to it. Leitgeb determines this theory's consequences for, and applications to, learning, suppositional reasoning, decision-making, assertion, acceptance, conditionals, and chance. The volume builds new bridges between logic and probability theory, traditional and formal epistemology, theoretical and practical rationality, and synchronic and diachronic norms for reasoning.
Author : Igor Douven
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 279 pages
File Size : 22,79 MB
Release : 2021-02-04
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 1108386407
We talk and think about our beliefs both in a categorical (yes/no) and in a graded way. How do the two kinds of belief hang together? The most straightforward answer is that we believe something categorically if we believe it to a high enough degree. But this seemingly obvious, near-platitudinous claim is known to give rise to a paradox commonly known as the 'lottery paradox' – at least when it is coupled with some further seeming near-platitudes about belief. How to resolve that paradox has been a matter of intense philosophical debate for over fifty years. This volume offers a collection of newly commissioned essays on the subject, all of which provide compelling reasons for rethinking many of the fundamentals of the debate.
Author : Martin Smith
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 16,35 MB
Release : 2017-11-17
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0191071633
Martin Smith explores a question central to philosophy—namely, what does it take for a belief to be justified or rational? According to a widespread view, whether one has justification for believing a proposition is determined by how probable that proposition is, given one's evidence. In the present book this view is rejected and replaced with another: in order for one to have justification for believing a proposition, one's evidence must normically support it—roughly, one's evidence must make the falsity of that proposition abnormal in the sense of calling for special, independent explanation. This conception of justification bears upon a range of topics in epistemology and beyond, including the relation between justification and knowledge, the force of statistical evidence, the problem of scepticism, the lottery and preface paradoxes, the viability of multiple premise closure, the internalist/externalist debate, the psychology of human reasoning, and the relation between belief and degrees of belief. Ultimately, this way of looking at justification guides us to a new, unfamiliar picture of how we should respond to our evidence and manage our own fallibility. This picture is developed here.
Author : Steven G. Vick
Publisher : ASCE Publications
Page : 472 pages
File Size : 48,80 MB
Release : 2002-01-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780784405987
Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Author : Rik Peels
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 289 pages
File Size : 15,40 MB
Release : 2017
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0190608110
This book develops and defends a theory of responsible belief. The author argues that we lack control over our beliefs, but that we can nonetheless influence them. It is because we have intellectual obligations to influence our beliefs that we are responsible for them.
Author : Wolfgang Spohn
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 615 pages
File Size : 12,99 MB
Release : 2012-03-29
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0199697507
Wolfgang Spohn presents the first full account of the dynamic laws of belief, by means of ranking theory, a relative of probability theory which he has pioneered since the 1980s. He offers novel insights into the nature of laws, the theory of causation, inductive reasoning and its experiential base, and a priori principles of reason.