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Author : International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 33,97 MB
Release : 2003-05-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498329462
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Author : World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 17,87 MB
Release : 2004-10-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498330088
This paper seeks to address queries on several operational issues: (i) the robustness of the indicative thresholds; (ii) modalities for implementing DSAs; and (iii) operational implications for the Fund, Bank, and other international financial institutions and creditors.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 111 pages
File Size : 39,26 MB
Release : 2017-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498346359
The Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-income Countries (LIC DSF) has been the cornerstone of assessments of risks to debt sustainability in LICs. The framework classifies countries based on their assessed debt-carrying capacity, estimates threshold levels for selected debt burden indicators, evaluates baseline projections and stress test scenarios relative to these thresholds, and then combines indicative rules and staff judgment to assign risk ratings of external debt distress. The framework has demonstrated its operational value since the last review was conducted in 2012, but there are areas where new features can be introduced to enhance its performance in assessing risks. Against the backdrop of the evolving nature of risks facing LICs, both staff analysis and stakeholder feedback suggest gaps in the framework to be addressed. Complexity and lack of transparency have also been highlighted as causes for concern. This paper proposes a set of reforms to enhance the value of the LIC DSF for all users. In developing these reforms, staff has been guided by two over-arching principles: a) the core architecture of the DSF—model-based results complemented by judgment—remains appropriate; and b) reforms should ensure that the DSF maintains an appropriate balance by providing countries with early warnings of potential debt distress without unnecessarily constraining their borrowing for development.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 19 pages
File Size : 11,84 MB
Release : 2005-03-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498331688
Building on initial discussions of the proposed framework in February/March 2004, and further considerations in September 2004, this paper responds to remaining concerns that need to be resolved to make the framework operational. These concerns relate to the indicative debt-burden thresholds (Section II); the interaction of the framework with the HIPC Initiative (Section III); and the modalities for Bank-Fund collaboration in deriving a common assessment of sustainability (Section IV). This note should be read in conjunction with the original proposal, which presented the wider issues on the use of the indicative thresholds, the evaluation of policies and institutions, and the need for discretion when assessing sustainability on a forward-looking basis.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 38,95 MB
Release : 2010-04-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498337562
We cannot allow the return of economic stability to signify a return to "business as usual" for the IMF. The crisis exposed huge cracks in the international financial architecture of which the Fund is a key part. We have an historic responsibility to fix them. I urge all of us to recommit to seeing our collective goals to the finish line before reform fatigue sets in.
Author : World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 64 pages
File Size : 46,61 MB
Release : 2006-06-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498332064
In April 2006, the Executive Boards of the Bank and the Fund reviewed the debt sustainability framework (DSF) for low-income countries and the implications of the multilateral debt relief initiative. Directors thought that the DSF was broadly appropriate and that no major changes were warranted, but saw scope for additional guidance on the application of the framework in a context where the apparent borrowing space created by debt relief raises new challenges in terms of policy advice. Most Directors supported a case-by-case approach for assessing the appropriate pace of debt accumulation in countries with debt below the DSF thresholds, but requested the development of specific recommendations on the implementation of such a case-by-case approach.
Author : Yasemin Bal Gunduz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 42,93 MB
Release : 2017-05-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475599730
This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.
Author : Mr.Henry Mooney
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 33,95 MB
Release : 2017-10-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484326156
This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 84 pages
File Size : 17,48 MB
Release : 2004-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498330630
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Author : Bergljot Barkbu
Publisher :
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 13,2 MB
Release : 2008
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781589067929
Low-income countries continue to face significant challenges in meeting their vast development needs while maintaining a sustainable debt position, even after many of these countries have benefited from substantial debt relief. These challenges are further exacerbated by changes in the financial landscape, including the emergence of new creditors and investors, the use of more complex financing vehicles, and the development of domestic markets. The joint World Bank/IMF debt sustainability framework is well placed to help address these challenges and reduce the risks of renewed episodes of debt distress. This paper explains the analytical underpinnings of the framework and the means to ensure its full effectiveness.--Publisher's description.