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Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries

Yasemin Bal Gunduz
Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries by Yasemin Bal Gunduz PDF

Author : Yasemin Bal Gunduz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 40,31 MB
Release : 2017-05-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475599773

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This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.

Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - Further Considerations on an Operational Framework and Policy Implications

World Bank
Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - Further Considerations on an Operational Framework and Policy Implications by World Bank PDF

Author : World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 45,46 MB
Release : 2004-10-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498330088

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This paper seeks to address queries on several operational issues: (i) the robustness of the indicative thresholds; (ii) modalities for implementing DSAs; and (iii) operational implications for the Fund, Bank, and other international financial institutions and creditors.

Preserving Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Preserving Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 39,62 MB
Release : 2010-04-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498337562

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We cannot allow the return of economic stability to signify a return to "business as usual" for the IMF. The crisis exposed huge cracks in the international financial architecture of which the Fund is a key part. We have an historic responsibility to fix them. I urge all of us to recommit to seeing our collective goals to the finish line before reform fatigue sets in.

Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 111 pages
File Size : 50,49 MB
Release : 2017-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498346359

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The Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-income Countries (LIC DSF) has been the cornerstone of assessments of risks to debt sustainability in LICs. The framework classifies countries based on their assessed debt-carrying capacity, estimates threshold levels for selected debt burden indicators, evaluates baseline projections and stress test scenarios relative to these thresholds, and then combines indicative rules and staff judgment to assign risk ratings of external debt distress. The framework has demonstrated its operational value since the last review was conducted in 2012, but there are areas where new features can be introduced to enhance its performance in assessing risks. Against the backdrop of the evolving nature of risks facing LICs, both staff analysis and stakeholder feedback suggest gaps in the framework to be addressed. Complexity and lack of transparency have also been highlighted as causes for concern. This paper proposes a set of reforms to enhance the value of the LIC DSF for all users. In developing these reforms, staff has been guided by two over-arching principles: a) the core architecture of the DSF—model-based results complemented by judgment—remains appropriate; and b) reforms should ensure that the DSF maintains an appropriate balance by providing countries with early warnings of potential debt distress without unnecessarily constraining their borrowing for development.

Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance

Mr.Henry Mooney
Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance by Mr.Henry Mooney PDF

Author : Mr.Henry Mooney
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 29,79 MB
Release : 2017-10-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484326156

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This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at ‘moderate’ risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected ‘residuals’. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment.

Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

Mr.Andrew Berg
Assessing Bias and Accuracy in the World Bank-IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries by Mr.Andrew Berg PDF

Author : Mr.Andrew Berg
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 50,54 MB
Release : 2014-03-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475520549

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The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold approach” DTA). The DSF contains a rule for aggregating the information contained in these five different variables which we label the “worst-case aggregator” (WCA) in view of the fact that the DSF considers a breach of any one of the thresholds sufficient to indicate a high risk of debt distress. However, neither the DTA nor the WCA has heretofore been subject to empirical testing. We find that: (1) the DTA loses information relative to a simple proposed alternative; (2) the WCA is too conservative (predicting crises too often) in terms of the loss function used in the DSF; and (3) the WCA is less accurate than some simple proposed alternative aggregators as a predictor of debt distress.

A Review of Some Aspects of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework

International Monetary Fund
A Review of Some Aspects of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework by International Monetary Fund PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 29,41 MB
Release : 2009-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498335713

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The Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) is a standardized framework for analyzing debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries (LICs). It aims to help countries monitor their debt burden and take early preventive action, to provide guidance to creditors in ensuring their lending decisions are consistent with countries’ development goals, and to improve the Bank and Fund’s assessments and policy advice. The DSF was last reviewed in 2006, and a reconsideration of some aspects of the framework is timely.