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Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

Author : Mr.Sergi Lanau
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 19,77 MB
Release : 2018-05-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484354826

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We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S. Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.

Time-Series Forecasting

Author : Chris Chatfield
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 35,87 MB
Release : 2000-10-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1420036203

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From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space

Global Trends 2040

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 30,61 MB
Release : 2021-03
Category :
ISBN : 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

From Few to Many

Author : Amanda Glassman
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 38,12 MB
Release : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780815724797

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"From Few to Many is the first comprehensive look at Colombia's 1993 health system reforms. It describes the implementation of universal health insurance, including a subsidized system for the poor, and examines the impact of this and other reforms during a time when Colombia experienced crushing recession and internal conflict that displaced half a million people." "Prior to the reforms, a quarter of the Colombian population had health insurance. Subsidies failed to reach the poor, who were vulnerable to catastrophic financial consequences of illness. Yet by 2008, 85 percent of the population benefited from health insurance." "From Few to Many describes the challenges and benefits of implementing social health reforms in a developing country, exploring health care financing, institutional reform, the effects of political will on health care, and more. The reforms have provided important lessons not only for continued reform in Colombia, but also for other nations facing similar challenges." --Book Jacket.

Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis

Author : Gebhard Kirchgässner
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 46,7 MB
Release : 2008-08-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540687351

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This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series. It contains the most important approaches to analyze time series which may be stationary or nonstationary.

Macroeconomics

Author : Olivier Blanchard
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 21,25 MB
Release : 2021
Category : Europe
ISBN : 9781292360911

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This print textbook is available for students to rent for their classes. The Pearson print rental program provides students with affordable access to learning materials, so they come to class ready to succeed. For intermediate courses in economics. A unified view of the latest macroeconomic events In Macroeconomics, Blanchard presents an integrated, global view of macroeconomics, enabling students to see the connections between goods markets, financial markets, and labor markets worldwide. Organized into two parts, the text contains a core section that focuses on short-, medium-, and long-run markets and two major extensions that offer more in-depth coverage of the issues at hand. From the major economic crisis that engulfed the world in the late 2000s, to monetary policy in the US, to the problems of the Euro area, and growth in China, the text helps students make sense not only of current macroeconomic events but also of those that may unfold in the future. Integrated, detailed boxes in the 8th Edition have been updated to convey the life of macroeconomics today, reinforce lessons from the models, and help students employ and develop their analytical and evaluative skills. Also available with MyLab Economics By combining trusted author content with digital tools and a flexible platform, MyLab personalizes the learning experience and improves results for each student.

Quantitative Methods in Economics and Finance

Author : Tomas Kliestik
Publisher : MDPI
Page : 164 pages
File Size : 27,9 MB
Release : 2021-04-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3036505369

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The purpose of the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods in Economics and Finance” of the journal Risks was to provide a collection of papers that reflect the latest research and problems of pricing complex derivates, simulation pricing, analysis of financial markets, and volatility of exchange rates in the international context. This book can be used as a reference for academicians and researchers who would like to discuss and introduce new developments in the field of quantitative methods in economics and finance and explore applications of quantitative methods in other business areas.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 16,38 MB
Release : 2020-05-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

World Economic Outlook, April 2009

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 252 pages
File Size : 11,7 MB
Release : 2009-04-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1589068068

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This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.