[PDF] Climate Variability And Maize Yield In South Africa Results From Gme And Mele Methods eBook

Author : Lwandle Mqadi
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 24,1 MB
Release : 2013
Category :
ISBN :

GET BOOK

Maize production accounts for about 40% of the entire area cultivated in South Africa and is highly sensitive to climate variability. Maize is thus conservatively a staple food for more than 70% of the South African population whilst the maize industry stimulates the economy directly by providing secondary industries with over a billion worth of business each year. This study used the production function approach to evaluate likely impacts of climate change on maize production in South Africa. Data for this study have been obtained from experimental research sites in the 19 main maize producing regions in South Africa. The estimated coefficients of the production function model were used to derive measures of elasticity and optimal climate damage points as well as to simulate partial and total impacts of changes in levels of climate variables on maize yield. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) benchmark predictions of global warming for Southern Africa indicates that with the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a hotter and drier climate for the western semi-arid regions of Southern Africa and a hotter and slightly wetter climate for the eastern sub-tropical regions of Southern Africa are anticipated. Results indicated that rainfall and net solar radiation diffused within the maize crop have a non-linear and significant impact on average maize yield. Solar radiation rather than temperature was included in the regression analysis as temperature measures did not perform well. The results illustrated that increasing rainfall levels in all three main growth stages (sowing to emergence, juvenile to tassel initiation, and tassel initiation to grain filling growth stages) would increase maize yields whilst increases in solar radiation particularly during tassel initiation to grain filling would decrease maize yield. These results suggest that farmers could adopt a number of adaptation options including manipulation of planting dates, introduction of heat tolerant maize varieties and other options to mitigate the negative impacts of highlighted increases in solar radiation levels. Results also showed that for the semi-dry regions of South Africa, early growth stages of the maize crop would be mostly affected by decreases in rainfall whilst for the wet eastern regions the forecasted drier conditions would affect mostly the late maize growth stages. To capture the cumulative impact of increasing solar radiation and rainfall amounts marginally across all growth stages, a climate simulation analysis whereby the two main IPCC warming scenarios predicted for the Southern Africa region were used. In the partial effects analysis rainfall and solar radiation changes were simulated separately for each growth stage at a time, whereas in the total effects analysis rainfall and solar radiation changes were simulated simultaneously across all growth stages. Results of these analyses suggest that the west semi-dry regions of South Africa might benefit from the forecasted decreases in both rainfall and solar radiation, especially if sensitivity of the maize crop during its second growth stage is mitigated through the introduction of irrigation. This study also illustrated that maize production in the wet east regions might benefit in all its three growth stages from the forecasted increases in rainfall and solar radiation, especially if sensitivity of the first growth stage is reduced through the possible shifting of planting dates to mitigate the effects of increased rainfall forecasted for this region. One should note however, that the maize crop has the ability to agronomically adapt easily to drier conditions. Other attributes which further assists the resistance of the maize crop to climate changes, include extensive conservation soil tillage farming practices which could be applied to optimise soil infiltration rates whilst minimising evaporation rates, thus reducing soil erosion. The above results highlight the need for investments in improving the adaptive capacity of farmers, especially small-scale farmers who are severely restricted by their heavy reliance on natural climate factors and at the same time lack complementary inputs and institutional support systems. The existence of institutional support systems may assist farmers in further understanding anticipated climate changes and available conservation agricultural practices e.g. cost effective irrigation control systems. Other adaptation options include improved capacity of all the stakeholders involved in maize production (farmers, processors, marketers, exporters etc.) to better the ability to cope with the adversities of climate change through the use of farm planning, available crop insurance systems with regards to floods and droughts, improved weather and climate monitoring and forecasting. At a regional scale, extensive agricultural planning and risk reduction programmes may assist with spreading losses over larger regional areas, which may serve to reduce overall risk to growers. One important limitation of this study was that the analyses focused on the experimental sites only and hence did not consider all maize production areas across the country (which includes sites under small-scale farming). Also, the model adopted for this study also did not include the effects of carbon dioxide fertilisation and price movements, which are crucial. In conclusion, then, there is an urgent need for the South African National Department of Agriculture to look at how maize farmers (and especially small-scale farmers) could be assisted in adapting their traditional cropping methods to the forecasted changes in climate, whilst taking into consideration all the options presented above.

Author : Cynthia Rosenzweig
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 831 pages
File Size : 14,12 MB
Release : 2021-04-13
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1786348772

GET BOOK

This two-part handbook focuses on the work that the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) accomplished using a new method — the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment Protocol — in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia (SA), with funding from the UK Department for International Development. Through this research, AgMIP substantially improves the characterization and understanding of food security in SSA and SA and how its affected by climate variability and change.The chapters in this handbook demonstrate how AgMIP has enhanced the capacity of developing country researchers and stakeholders to work together, exploring and prioritizing adaptation to current and future climate stresses. Part 1 describes regional integrated assessment methods and analyses, while Part 2 presents the outcomes of farming system studies. The entire volume shows how AgMIP has established, as a public good, protocols for Regional Integrated Assessments that improve the capability of developing countries to address climate change challenges.Related Link(s)

Author : Adisa Omolola Mayowa
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 23,37 MB
Release : 2019
Category :
ISBN :

GET BOOK

Climate change and variability is foreseen to have direct and indirect effects on the existing agricultural production systems potentially threatening local, regional and/or global food security depending on the spatial scale of the change. The trend and level of impact caused by climate change and/or variability is region dependent and adaptive capacity. Climate change is projected to have more adverse impact in high vulnerability areas of sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to examine the variation in maize yield and develop a framework for predicting maize yield in response to climate change. To achieve this aim, this study has analyzed the impact of agro-climatic parameters on maize production across the major four maize producing provinces of South Africa. This study went further to investigate changes in the satellite derived phenological parameters and its relationship with maize production. In addition, the influence of drought (a derivative of climate change) on maize production was investigated. The study concluded by integrating all datasets used in each objective to develop an empirical predicting model using artificial neural network. Previous studies have quantified the impact of climatic variables on maize and at a small geographic area. Attempts to predict maize yield have been minimal and the use of artificial intelligence such as the artificial neural network has not been conducted. In this study, alternative sources of climatic and environmental data have been employed using remotely sensed data which offers possibilities of collecting continuous data over a large area (including remote areas) through the use of satellite. The analysis of agro-climatic variables (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, minimum and maximum temperatures) spanning a period of 19860́32015, over the North West, Free State, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces, indicated that there is a negative trend in precipitation for North West and Free State provinces and positive trend in maximum temperature for all the provinces over the study period. Further more, the result showed that one or more different agro-climatic variables has more influence on maize across the provinces. Analysis of the phenological parameters of maize indicated that climate change and climate variability affect plant phenology largely during the vegetative and reproductive stages. NDVI values exhibited a decreasing trend across the maize producing provinces of South Africa. The results further demonstrate that the influences of climate variables on phenological parameters exhibit a strong space-time and common covariate dependence. Agro-climatic variables can predict about 46% of the variability of phenology indicators and about 63% of the variability of yield indicators for the entire study area. The study also illustrated the spatial patterns of drought depicting drought severity, frequency, and intensity which has the potential to influence crop yield. The study found that maize yield is most sensitive to 3-month timescale coinciding with maize growing season (r = 0.59; p

Author : Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 26,67 MB
Release : 2009
Category : Social Science
ISBN :

GET BOOK

Climate change is expected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts on South Africa. In particular, rural farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. The extent to which these impacts are felt depends in large part on the extent of adaptation in response to climate change. This research uses a "bottom-up" approach, which seeks to gain insights from the farmers themselves based on a farm household survey. Farm-level data were collected from 794 households in the Limpopo River Basin of South Africa for the farming season 2004-2005. The study examines how farmer perceptions correspond with climate data recorded at meteorological stations in the Limpopo River Basin and analyzes farmers' adaptation responses to climate change and variability. A Heckman probit model and a multinomial logit (MNL) model are used to examine the determinants of adaptation to climate change and variability. The statistical analysis of the climate data shows that temperature has increased over the years. Rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability, with the previous three years being very dry. Indeed, the analysis shows that farmers' perceptions of climate change are in line with the climatic data records. However, only approximately half of the farmers have adjusted their farming practices to account for the impacts of climate change. Lack of access to credit was cited by respondents as the main factor inhibiting adaptation. The results of the multinomial logit and Heckman probit models highlighted that household size, farming experience, wealth, access to credit, access to water, tenure rights, off-farm activities, and access to extension are the main factors that enhance adaptive capacity. Thus, the government should design policies aimed at improving these factors.

Author : Walter Leal Filho
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 490 pages
File Size : 20,51 MB
Release : 2022-04-22
Category : Science
ISBN : 3030879348

GET BOOK

This book presents climate change as a global phenomenon which affects the entire food chain. Many studies analyzing environmental impacts of food systems confirm significant effects of food production on climate change. Most of them associate primary production with emission of greenhouse gasses identified as one of the causes resulting in warming the atmosphere and global climate effects. A wider perspective shows that the food chains start at farms with consumers being at the end of the pipeline. This approach emphasizes the role of the entire food chain highlighting different kinds of environmental impacts affecting climate change. On the other side, temperature changes and variations of precipitation patterns, together with extreme weather events and water reduction, are recognized as predictors for producing less food, decreased food quality, new food safety risks, biodiversity losses, and depletion of resources associated with food production in modified circumstances. Last but not least, these effects introduce new threats known as food security where some assumptions stress that almost one billion of people are hungry not receiving enough food as a result of climate changes. As a result, the UN highlights the need for combating climate change and promotes sustainable (food) consumption and production. Based on the perceived need to promote and disseminate information on climate change related to food system, the “Handbook of Climate change across the food supply chain” is being produced. The publication compiles information, experiences, practical initiatives, and projects around the subject matter and makes it available to a wide audience. It is expected that the “Handbook of Climate change across the food supply chain” makes many benefits of climate service clearer and, inter alia, leads to an increase in the demand for such important services.

Author : Lawrence Godfrey Kamanga
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 75 pages
File Size : 44,31 MB
Release : 2023-11-15
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 3346970248

GET BOOK

Masterarbeit aus dem Fachbereich Agrarwissenschaften, , Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: This research was done in Nangoma Agricultural Camp in Mumbwa district of Central Zambia on farmers’ perceptions of climatic factors affecting maize yield. Maize is the most common cereal (85%) cultivated in Nangoma Agricultural Camp. However, smallholder maize farmers have been perceiving its yield to be going down from 1990s to date; 70.59% from 1990-2000, 27.45% from 2001-2011, and 17.65% from 2012-2022. Such a farmers’ perception on a downward spiral of maize yield is attributed to their perceived negative impacts of climatic factors like increased temperature (87.25%) and variations in rainfall i.e., late onset 94.12%, early cessation 87.25%), and localized rainfall (67.65%) by smallholder maize farmers in the study area. The overall goal of the study was to investigate perceptions of smallholder maize farmers on climatic factors effecting maize yield in Nangoma Agricultural Camp. The specific objectives were: Assessing smallholder maize farmers’ knowledge about climate change in Nangoma Agricultural Camp, investigating farmers’ perceptions on rainfall pattern seasonally in the study area, investigating farmers’ opinions on trends of maize yield in the study area, identifying climatic challenges associated with maize yields among smallholder maize famers in the study area, and investigating mitigation and adaptation strategies in maize farming among the smallholder maize farmers in the study area. The research design for achieving the above objectives were both quantitative and qualitative research methods; a survey, 3 Focus Group Discussion (FGDs), and 6 Key informants or In-depth interviews. Experts from Zambia Meteorological Department, Zambia National Farmers’ Union (ZNFU), extension officers from the Ministry of Agriculture working in Nangoma Agricultural Camp, Climate Change Network of Zambia (CCNZ), the media, and traditional leadership were purposefully identified for qualitative data.

Author : Thomas, Timothy S.
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 97 pages
File Size : 25,18 MB
Release : 2024-02-27
Category : Political Science
ISBN :

GET BOOK

In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops.