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If there is one constant in expert analyses of the history of modern China, it is the characterization of a country perpetually in the throes of crises. While China at the mid-point of the Twenty-first Century's first decade is arguably the most secure and stable it has been in more than a century, crises continue to emerge with apparent frequency. Consequently, the study of china's behavior in conditions of tension and stress is of considerable importance to policy makers and analysts around the world.
If there is one constant in expert analyses of the history of modern China, it is the characterization of a country perpetually in the throes of crises. And in nearly all crises, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has played an instrumental role. While China at the mid-point of the 21st century's first decade is arguably the most secure and stable it has been in more than a century, crises continue to emerge with apparent frequency. Consequently, the study of China's behavior in conditions of tension and stress, and particularly how the PLA is a factor in that behavior, is of considerable importance to policymakers and analysts around the world. This volume represents the fruits of a conference held at the U.S. Army War College in September 2004 on the theme of "Chinese Crisis Management." One of the major debates that emerged among participants was whether all the case studies under examination constituted crises in the eyes of China's leaders. The consensus was that not all of these incidents were perceived as crises, a key case in point being the three Iraq wars (1980-88, 1990-91, and 2003). As a result, the rubric of "decisionmaking under stress" was adopted as presenters revised their papers for publication. No matter what rubric is employed, however, the chapters in this volume shed light on patterns of Chinese behavior in crisis-like situations and decisionmaking under stress. Michael Swaine's contributed chapter first establishes a general framework for understanding crisis management based on previous work by Alexander George and J. Philip Rogers. He then proceeds to apply this framework to Chinese crisis management in particular. Swaine identifies five basic variables that influence crisis management behavior, subjective views of leaders and public, domestic environment, decisionmaking structure, information receipt and processing, and idiosyncratic features. In the case of China, he argues, the country often views itself as a victim and therefore strongly reacts to what it perceives as "unjust actions" on the part of other countries. Chinese leaders are thereby compelled to signal their firm resolve on serious issues through words and actions. However, decisionmaking is centralized in the hands of a small number of Party cadre, who work to develop a consensus, while China's bureaucratic Party and intelligence system severely compartmentalizes the flow of information, especially to senior leaders. This limits and sometimes distorts the information they receive during crisis situations. Swaine then raises a number of questions about the factors that influence the Chinese framework for decisionmaking. He concludes that, if we can better understand the broad tendencies that affect China's crisis management style, we may be able to reduce the likelihood of undesirable situations in which a Sino-U.S. crisis would erupt. Larry Wortzel presented a paper on Chinese decisionmaking and the Tiananmen Square Massacre. In Wortzel's opinion, at the time of Hu Yaobang's death, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was under intense public pressure to reform and reduce corruption. Hu's death acted as a catalyst, leading to student demonstrations, which were encouraged by reformist members of the CCP. As the protests became larger, several conservative factions, normally at odds with one another, closed ranks and sought to end the demonstrations, first through police, then military, means. However, the consensus decision to use force took time, and the apparent lack of action by the Party was seen by protestors to be tacit approval of their actions.
Author : Andrew Scobell Publisher : Strategic Studies Institute U. S. Army War College Page : 264 pages File Size : 45,31 MB Release : 2005 Category : China ISBN :
This volume represents the fruits of a conference held at the U.S. Army War College in September 2005 on the theme of "Chinese Crisis Management." One of the major debates that emerged among participants was whether all the case studies under examination constituted crises in the eyes of China's leaders. The consensus was that not all of those incidents were perceived as crises. As a result the rubric of "decision making under stress" was adopted as presenters revised their papers for publication.
In China's case, the term 'national security' encompasses both domestic/internal and foreign/external security and, therefore, has a much broader connotation. This paper is primarily focused on the external dimensions of China's national security. There are many overlapping aspects between China's national security policy and its foreign policy, as the latter also serves to protect China's national security interests. However, because national security also covers military security, national defense, economic security and other non-traditional security challenges, the framework and coverage is broader than with foreign policy. This paper examines three processes of China's national security decision-making: the decision-making at the top level, the policy-coordination process conducted through the National Security Leading Small Group (NSLSG), and the informational process for national security decision-making. Information for national security decision-making is produced primarily by participating agencies and think tanks, but there is a standard process of screening, organizing, and disseminating that allows information to flow to the top. A fundamental challenge for China's national security decision-making system lies in the conflict between the need for centralization and the diffusion of power (collective leadership) at the top level. Understanding that most of the challenges in the Chinese national security system have deep historical, political and structural roots, any attempt to address them must be bold and might seem politically unrealistic. Nevertheless, the recommendations offered in this paper are aimed at addressing the fundamental deficiencies of the current system. Their feasibility depends on the future of political reform, which although widely agreed as inevitable, has thus far been successfully avoided.
An accurate understanding of the Chinese decision-making process is critical to anticipating and deescalating Sino-American crises through effective crisis management. Although rational models of decision making have been heavily used to explain state decisions, some outcomes do not fit rational assumptions, leaving questions of state intentions seemingly ambiguous and unanswered. This study uses an organization-centered, cybernetic approach and assumes: 1) that alternatives considered by a government reside in the existing capabilities of the state's institutions, and 2) decision-making outcomes are characterized as governmental actions through organizational routines. After identifying three functional decision-making variables (how a decision-making process manages complexity, deals with uncertainty, and adapts to change), this research tests the general structure and current trends in PRC politics for evidence that Beijing uses cybernetic methods when deciding how to resolve complex problems. Additionally, this study selects five recent near-crisis events (1999 Belgrade embassy bombing, 2001 EP-3 midair collision, 2002-03 SARS outbreak, 2007 PRC anti-satellite test, and 2008 Sichuan earthquake response) for a cross-case analysis of these same three variables in times of crisis. This research offers unique insight in both the applicability of the cybernetic model in PRC analysis as well as expectations of Beijing's future decision making under stress.
How will China use its increasing military capabilities in the future? China faces a complicated security environment with a wide range of internal and external threats. Rapidly expanding international interests are creating demands for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to conduct new missions ranging from protecting Chinese shipping from Somali pirates to evacuating citizens from Libya. The most recent Chinese defense white paper states that the armed forces must "make serious preparations to cope with the most complex and difficult scenarios . . . so as to ensure proper responses . . . at any time and under any circumstances." Based on a conference co-sponsored by Taiwan's Council of Advanced Policy Studies, RAND, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and National Defense University, The People's Liberation Army and Contingency Planning in China brings together leading experts from the United States and Taiwan to examine how the PLA prepares for a range of domestic, border, and maritime...
The Routledge Handbook of Asian Security Studies provides a detailed exploration of security dynamics in the three distinct subregions that comprise Asia, and also bridges the study of these regions by exploring the geopolitical links between each of them. The Handbook is divided into four geographical parts: Part I: Northeast Asia Part II: South Asia Part III: Southeast Asia Part IV: Cross-regional Issues This fully revised and updated second edition addresses the significant developments which have taken place in Asia since the first edition appeared in 2009. It examines these developments at both regional and national levels, including the conflict surrounding the South China Sea, the long-standing Sino-Indian border dispute, and Pakistan’s investment in tactical nuclear weapons, amongst many others. This book will be of great interest to students of Asian politics, security studies, war and conflict studies, foreign policy and international relations generally.
This book selects the most outstanding journal articles from the Chinese version of Foreign Affairs Review written by prestigious Chinese scholars in recent years. The articles focus on analysis of foreign affairs issues which are of relevance to China, and provide insightful perspectives on China's diplomacy and international system. The scope of the book is broad, including both theoretical insights and solid case studies. It covers recent hotspots in practice, like public participation in China's diplomacy, safety issues of overseas Chinese, and concepts of Chinese diplomacy like "People First," as well as case studies on historical events or long-term practices like analysis of China's crisis diplomacy decision-making in the post-Cold War era, China's cooperation with UNESCO, etc. The book provides fresh and insightful articles from Chinese perspectives, which will benefit international readers who are interested in China's diplomacy, foreign affairs and international relations.
In recent years there have been reports of actions purportedly taken by People's Liberation Army (PLA) units without civilian authorization, and of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) civilian leaders seeking to curry favor with the military—suggesting that a nationalistic and increasingly influential PLA is driving more assertive Chinese policies on a range of military and sovereignty issues. To many experienced PLA watchers, however, the PLA remains a "party-army" that is responsive to orders from the CCP. PLA Influence on China's National Security Policymaking seeks to assess the "real" relationship between the PLA and its civilian masters by moving beyond media and pundit speculation to mount an in-depth examination and explanation of the PLA's role in national security policymaking. After examining the structural factors that shape PLA interactions with the Party-State, the book uses case studies to explore the PLA's role in foreign policy crises. It then assesses the PLA's role in China's territorial disputes and in military interactions with civilian government and business, exploring the military's role in China's civil–military integration development strategy. The evidence reveals that today's PLA does appear to have more influence on purely military issues than in the past—but much less influence on political issues—and to be more actively engaged in policy debates on mixed civil-military issues where military equities are at stake.
Leading authorities analyze growing tensions in US-China relations and what this means for the future The US-China relationship is now defined by “strategic competition.” In Cold Rivals, a distinguished group of scholars from the United States and China examine the reasons for this deterioration and its implications for world politics. The two countries are now competitors locked in a long-term rivalry, but how volatile this rivalry will become is still to be determined. The book explores not only the historical roots and contemporary foreign policy aspects of this era, but also looks at the economic, military, and technological arenas of US-China strategic competition. In doing so, this volume highlights important differences in US and Chinese perspectives. A final section of the volume explores future scenarios for this relationship from a variety of perspectives, all coming to a sobering conclusion. This policy-relevant book provides a comprehensive overview of US-China strategic competition and reinvigorates thinking about how to avoid reaching a crisis point.