[PDF] Certain Uncertainty eBook

Author : Mark P. Silverman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 637 pages
File Size : 37,83 MB
Release : 2014-07-10
Category : Science
ISBN : 1139992414

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Based around a series of real-life scenarios, this engaging introduction to statistical reasoning will teach you how to apply powerful statistical, qualitative and probabilistic tools in a technical context. From analysis of electricity bills, baseball statistics, and stock market fluctuations, through to profound questions about physics of fermions and bosons, decaying nuclei, and climate change, each chapter introduces relevant physical, statistical and mathematical principles step-by-step in an engaging narrative style, helping to develop practical proficiency in the use of probability and statistical reasoning. With numerous illustrations making it easy to focus on the most important information, this insightful book is perfect for students and researchers of any discipline interested in the interwoven tapestry of probability, statistics, and physics.

Author : Mark P. Silverman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 637 pages
File Size : 40,99 MB
Release : 2014-07-10
Category : Science
ISBN : 1107032814

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This engaging introduction to statistical reasoning will teach you how to apply powerful statistical tools in a technical context.

Author : Mark A. Schaefer
Publisher : Wipf and Stock Publishers
Page : 276 pages
File Size : 16,66 MB
Release : 2018-08-23
Category : Religion
ISBN : 153265345X

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The world is full of people who are very certain--in politics, in religion, in all manner of things. In addition, political, religious, and social organizations are marketing certainty as a cure all to all life's problems. But is such certainty possible? Or even good? The Certainty of Uncertainty explores the question of certainty by looking at the reasons human beings crave certainty and the religious responses we frequently fashion to help meet that need. The book takes an in-depth view of religion, language, our senses, our science, and our world to explore the inescapable uncertainties they reveal. We find that the certainty we crave does not exist. As we reflect on the unavoidable uncertainties in our world, we come to understand that letting go of certainty is not only necessary, it's beneficial. For, in embracing doubt and uncertainty, we find a more meaningful and courageous religious faith, a deeper encounter with mystery, and a way to build strong relationships across religious and philosophical lines. In The Certainty of Uncertainty, we see that embracing our belief systems with humility and uncertainty can be transformative for ourselves and for our world.

Author : Shirley Dobson
Publisher : Multnomah
Page : 104 pages
File Size : 24,91 MB
Release : 2002
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9781576739372

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Respond to change in a chaotic world with inner peace and resolve. National Day of Prayer Task Force chairman Shirley Dobson shows you how to nurture an efffective and lasting lifestyle of prayer.

Author : Joseph B. Kadane
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 525 pages
File Size : 12,73 MB
Release : 2020-11-25
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1351683365

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Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 25,88 MB
Release : 2006-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1602060053

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A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Author : Jim Collins
Publisher : Harper Collins
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 49,48 MB
Release : 2011-10-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0062121006

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Ten years after the worldwide bestseller Good to Great, Jim Collins returns withanother groundbreaking work, this time to ask: why do some companies thrive inuncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? Based on nine years of research,buttressed by rigorous analysis and infused with engaging stories, Collins andhis colleague Morten Hansen enumerate the principles for building a truly greatenterprise in unpredictable, tumultuous and fast-moving times. This book isclassic Collins: contrarian, data-driven and uplifting.

Author : Des Dearlove
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 13,27 MB
Release : 2023-05-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1394153457

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Improve your ability to adapt to an increasingly unpredictable world In Certain Uncertainty, renowned management theorist Des Dearlove delivers an exciting and illuminating discussion of how to build resilience and agility into our lives and businesses. As rapid and foundational change becomes ever more constant, a state of constant disruption increasingly becomes our new normal. This book collects advice and fresh thinking from accomplished business leaders to help managers and executives navigate contemporary markets. In the book, you’ll find: Ways to structure your business to better respond to constant fluidity and change Discussions of why the concepts of economic and social certainty were always largely illusory Strategies for embracing forward-looking humility that acknowledges uncertainty about what lies around the next corner An engaging and insightful exploration of a dynamic and ambiguous world that’s increasingly full of surprises, Certain Uncertainty will earn a place on the bookshelves of business leaders, entrepreneurs, and visionaries seeking ways to adapt to a world in which sameness and certainty are relics of the past.

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 268 pages
File Size : 25,92 MB
Release : 2006-08-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0470055472

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A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Author : Philip Hodgson
Publisher : Financial Times/Prentice Hall
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 50,5 MB
Release : 2001
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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