[PDF] Bunching At 3 Percent The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion And Government Deficits eBook

Author : Francesca G Caselli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 20,12 MB
Release : 2018-08-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484371739

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This paper estimates the effects of the Maastricht treaty’s fiscal criterion on EU countries’ general government deficits. We combine treatment effects methods with bunching estimation, and find that the 3 percent deficit rule acts as a “magnet”, increasing the number of observations around the threshold, while reducing the occurrence of both large government deficits and surpluses. After the rule is adopted, the distribution of government deficits among EU countries displays 20 percent excess mass around the deficit ceiling compared to a counterfactual distribution in which countries have the same observable characteristics but without the fiscal rule. Most of the bunching response comes from a reduction in the number of high deficit observations. We also find that the average treatment effect on fiscal deficits is positive and statistically significant. Finally, we derive country-specific impacts under a rank invariance assumption and find that all EU countries have seen their fiscal position improve on average as a result of the deficit rule.

Author : Francesca G Caselli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 49,18 MB
Release : 2018-08-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484372999

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This paper estimates the effects of the Maastricht treaty’s fiscal criterion on EU countries’ general government deficits. We combine treatment effects methods with bunching estimation, and find that the 3 percent deficit rule acts as a “magnet”, increasing the number of observations around the threshold, while reducing the occurrence of both large government deficits and surpluses. After the rule is adopted, the distribution of government deficits among EU countries displays 20 percent excess mass around the deficit ceiling compared to a counterfactual distribution in which countries have the same observable characteristics but without the fiscal rule. Most of the bunching response comes from a reduction in the number of high deficit observations. We also find that the average treatment effect on fiscal deficits is positive and statistically significant. Finally, we derive country-specific impacts under a rank invariance assumption and find that all EU countries have seen their fiscal position improve on average as a result of the deficit rule.

Author : Antonio Fatás
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 47,29 MB
Release : 2019-05-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498312101

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Governments issue debt for good and bad reasons. While the good reasons—intertemporal tax-smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management—can explain some of the increases in public debt in recent years, they cannot account for all of the observed changes. Bad reasons for borrowing are driven by political failures associated with intergenerational transfers, strategic manipulation, and common pool problems. These political failures are a major cause of overborrowing though budgetary institutions and fiscal rules can play a role in mitigating governments’ tendencies to overborrow. While it is difficult to establish a clear causal link from high public debt to low output growth, it is likely that some countries pay a price—in terms of lower growth and greater output volatility—for excessive debt accumulation.

Author : S. Ali Abbas
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 42,60 MB
Release : 2019-10-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0192591398

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The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 43,88 MB
Release : 2023-10-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1464820260

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Notwithstanding global growth weakness and financial pressures, growth in South Asia is expected to remain robust, supported by slower fiscal consolidation than in other EMDEs, strong public investment, and a recovery as financial stress has subsided. Policy challenges include, in the short-term, preserving financial stability and restoring fiscal sustainability and, in the long-term, rekindling investment, and managing an energy transition. Currently, the energy intensity of South Asian economies is almost twice the global average—despite a decline over the past two decades that was almost entirely driven by firm-level, within-sector cuts in energy intensity. The potential benefit of regulatory policies, information interventions, and financial support to help accelerate the diffusion of these technologies, as well as the possibility that these could also lend broader support for countries' development objectives. The transition away from fossil fuels may have considerable labor market impacts. A wide range of policies, including better access to high-quality education, finance, and markets; improved labor mobility; and strengthened social safety nets, will be needed to facilitate the adjustment in labor markets while protecting vulnerable workers.

Author : Barry W. Poulson
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 389 pages
File Size : 15,54 MB
Release : 2022-01-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1666902578

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As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.

Author : Ludger Schuknecht
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 17,84 MB
Release : 2020-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1108853552

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Given high government spending, debt and the new challenges on the horizon, the themes of this work are more relevant than ever: the essential tool of spending by the state, its 'value for money', likely risks in the future, and the remedies to create lean, efficient and sustainable government. This book takes a holistic and international approach, covering most advanced countries, and discusses a historical overview of public expenditure, from the nineteenth century to the modern day, as well as future challenges. It sees the government's role as providing sound rules of the game and essential public goods and services. In presenting the relevant arguments, information and policy recommendations through comprehensive tables, charts and historical facts, the book addresses a broad readership, including students, professionals and interested members of the public.

Author : Dariusz Adamski
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 974 pages
File Size : 47,77 MB
Release : 2023-10-12
Category : Law
ISBN : 1009364669

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Written by experts in the field, this volume offers an in-depth and forward-looking legal, economic, and political science analysis of the rationale, main features, as well as the shortcomings of European economic, monetary, and financial integration. It is primarily intended for an academic audience and policymakers.