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Author : Tado Jurić
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 19,6 MB
Release : 2023
Category :
ISBN : 9783339136985
Author : Carlos Castillo
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 225 pages
File Size : 45,55 MB
Release : 2016-07-04
Category : Computers
ISBN : 1316694577
Social media is an invaluable source of time-critical information during a crisis. However, emergency response and humanitarian relief organizations that would like to use this information struggle with an avalanche of social media messages that exceeds the human capacity to process. Emergency managers, decision makers, and affected communities can make sense of social media through a combination of machine computation and human compassion - expressed by thousands of digital volunteers who publish, process, and summarize potentially life-saving information. This book brings together computational methods from many disciplines: natural language processing, semantic technologies, data mining, machine learning, network analysis, human-computer interaction, and information visualization, focusing on methods that are commonly used for processing social media messages under time-critical constraints, and offering more than 500 references to in-depth information.
Author : Michael Brecher
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
Page : 1094 pages
File Size : 41,52 MB
Release : 2022-06-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0472903128
As the twentieth century draws to a close, it is time to look back on an epoch of widespread turmoil, including two world wars, the end of the colonial era in world history, and a large number of international crises and conflicts. This book is designed to shed light on the causes and consequences of military-security crises since the end of World War I, in every region, across diverse economic and political regimes, and cultures. The primary aim of this volume is to uncover patterns of crises, conflicts and wars and thereby to contribute to the advancement of international peace and world order. The culmination of more than twenty years of research by Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, the book analyzes crucial themes about crisis, conflict, and war and presents systematic knowledge about more than 400 crises, thirty-one protracted conflicts and almost 900 state participants. The authors explore many aspects of conflict, including the ethnic dimension, the effect of different kinds of political regimes--notably the question whether democracies are more peaceful than authoritarian regimes, and the role of violence in crisis management. They employ both case studies and aggregate data analysis in a Unified Model of Crisis to focus on two levels of analysis--hostile interactions among states, and the behavior of decision-makers who must cope with the challenge posed by a threat to values, time pressure, and the increased likelihood that military hostilities will engulf them. This book will appeal to scholars in history, political science, sociology, and economics as well as policy makers interested in the causes and effects of crises in international relations. The rich data sets will serve researchers for years to come as they probe additional aspects of crisis, conflict and war in international relations. Michael Brecher is R. B. Angus Professor of Political Science, McGill University. Jonathan Wilkenfeld is Professor and Chair of the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland. They are the coauthors of Crises in the Twentieth Century: A Handbook of International Crisis, among other books and articles.
Author : Kees Boersma
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 404 pages
File Size : 17,57 MB
Release : 2017-08-14
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 1317270983
Big data, surveillance, crisis management. Three largely different and richly researched fields, however, the interplay amongst these three domains is rarely addressed. Through unique international case studies this book examines the links between these three fields. Considering crisis management as an 'umbrella term' that covers a number of crises and ways of managing them, this book explores the collection of ‘big data’ by governmental crisis organisations, as well as the unintended consequences of using such data. In particular, through the lens of surveillance, the contributions investigate how the use and abuse of big data can easily lead to monitoring and controlling the behaviour of people affected by crises. Readers will understand that big data in crisis management must be examined as a political process, involving questions of power and transparency. A highly topical volume, Big Data, Surveillance and Crisis Management will appeal to postgraduate students and postdoctoral researchers interested in fields including Sociology and Surveillance Studies, Disaster and Crisis Management, Media Studies, Governmentality, Organisation Theory and Information Society Studies.
Author : Cristina Montalvão Sarmento
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 48,4 MB
Release : 2019-01-24
Category : Reference
ISBN : 1527526968
The 2008 economic and financial crisis marked the beginning of a period of social transformation and uncertainty that continues to characterise present and future social development in unplanned and unexpected ways, with frequently harmful effects. It has highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of crises phenomena and how these affect the overall course of human development. On the one hand, the social sciences constitute a means for acquiring a better understanding of the character of the rapid and complex social transformations associated with crises. On the other hand, they can orientate people and social practices on how a greater degree of collective and democratic control can be acquired over the manner and direction of social processes in crises contexts. This book brings together a team of international scholars to address the notion of crises. Two main strains of inquiry orientate this study. First, it questions how different sociological and theoretical approaches might contribute to explain crises phenomena, analyse their effects, and identify their potential future paths of development. Secondly, it considers how crises processes and their effects on human social existence demand a re-thinking of the role of the social sciences in society, and what such a role might be. This volume not only opens up future lines of research by providing a comprehensive approach to crises phenomena, but also fills an important gap in the literature about crises which is frequently focused on only one of these dimensions and on particular historical contexts, rather than producing more comprehensive frameworks regarding the study of crises processes as a whole.
Author : Luca Barbaglia
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 13,44 MB
Release : 2022
Category :
ISBN :
During the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have struggled to obtain reliable economic predictions, with standard models becoming outdated and their forecasting performance deteriorating rapidly. This paper presents two novelties that could be adopted by forecasting institutions in unconventional times. The first innovation is the construction of an extensive data set for macroeconomic forecasting in Europe. We collect more than a thousand time series from conventional and unconventional sources, complementing traditional macroeconomic variables with timely big data indicators and assessing their added value at nowcasting. The second novelty consists of a methodology to merge an enormous amount of non-encompassing data with a large battery of classical and more sophisticated forecasting methods in a seamlessly dynamic Bayesian framework. Specifically, we introduce an innovative "selection prior" that is used not as a way to influence model outcomes, but as a selecting device among competing models. By applying this methodology to the COVID-19 crisis, we show which variables are good predictors for nowcasting Gross Domestic Product and draw lessons for dealing with possible future crises.
Author : Jessica Nguyen
Publisher :
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 27,61 MB
Release : 2020
Category :
ISBN :
In this paper, we uncover the relationships among social trust, corruption and the duration of economic crises. Our theoretical foundation is based on a collection of studies from different academic fields, especially political science, sociology and economics. We corroborate our arguments with both descriptive analysis and regression analysis of secondary data. Our dataset includes 11,364 observations distributed across 211 countries. The quantitative findings show that social trust is correlated with the duration of economic crises. Connecting our theoretical stance with the empirical evidence, we propose several possible explanations for the findings and provide both theoretical and practical implications.
Author :
Publisher :
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 34,33 MB
Release : 1978
Category :
ISBN :
This paper investigates the feasibility of using stability analysis as a medium for predicting international crises. Five international crises that occurred within the last decade were examined using WEIS data on conflictful and cooperative acts. Nine variations on the basic Richardson arms race model theme were used to fit the interactive behavior of the participants, of each crisis and to obtain estimates of the relevant parameters. The parameter estimates for the best fitting models were used to assess the stability of the interaction pattern in each crisis. In general, (using 95% confidence intervals), these patterns were found to be unstable. Due to data limitations, only one 'control' case could be examined; viz., we examined the interactions pattern of a pair of nations during a normal or non-crisis period. While the results are obviously highly tentative, they suggest that non-crisis periods probably do evidence stable reaction patterns. It would appear then that stability analysis may be of some value in forecasting international crises. (Author).
Author : Kazuhiko Shibuya
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 44,40 MB
Release : 2022
Category :
ISBN : 9789811909511
This book presents a study of the COVID-19 pandemic using computational social scientific analysis that draws from, and employs, statistics and simulations. Combining approaches in crisis management, risk assessment and mathematical modelling, the work also draws from the philosophy of sacrifice and futurology. It makes an original contribution to the important issue of the stability of society by highlighting two significant factors: the COVID-19 crisis as a catalyst for change and the rise of AI and Big Data in managing society. It also emphasizes the nature and importance of sacrifices and the role of politics in the distribution of sacrifices. The book considers the treatment of AI and Big Data and their use to both "good" and "bad" ends, exposing the inevitability of these tools being used. Relevant to both policymakers and social scientists interested in the influence of AI and Big Data on the structure of society, the book re-evaluates the ways we think of lifestyles, economic systems and the balance of power in tandem with digital transformation.
Author : Michael J. Manfredo
Publisher : Springer
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 13,90 MB
Release : 2014-06-11
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9401789592
In this edited open access book leading scholars from different disciplinary backgrounds wrestle with social science integration opportunities and challenges. This book explores the growing concern of how best to achieve effective integration of the social science disciplines as a means for furthering natural resource social science and environmental problem solving. The chapters provide an overview of the history, vision, advances, examples and methods that could lead to integration. The quest for integration among the social sciences is not new. Some argue that the social sciences have lagged in their advancements and contributions to society due to their inability to address integration related issues. Integration merits debate for a number of reasons. First, natural resource issues are complex and are affected by multiple proximate driving social factors. Single disciplinary studies focused at one level are unlikely to provide explanations that represent this complexity and are limited in their ability to inform policy recommendations. Complex problems are best explored across disciplines that examine social-ecological phenomenon from different scales. Second, multi-disciplinary initiatives such as those with physical and biological scientists are necessary to understand the scope of the social sciences. Too frequently there is a belief that one social scientist on a multi-disciplinary team provides adequate social science representation. Third, more complete models of human behavior will be achieved through a synthesis of diverse social science perspectives.