[PDF] Between Probability And Certainty eBook

Author : Martin Smith
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 32,78 MB
Release : 2017-11-17
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 0191071633

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Martin Smith explores a question central to philosophy—namely, what does it take for a belief to be justified or rational? According to a widespread view, whether one has justification for believing a proposition is determined by how probable that proposition is, given one's evidence. In the present book this view is rejected and replaced with another: in order for one to have justification for believing a proposition, one's evidence must normically support it—roughly, one's evidence must make the falsity of that proposition abnormal in the sense of calling for special, independent explanation. This conception of justification bears upon a range of topics in epistemology and beyond, including the relation between justification and knowledge, the force of statistical evidence, the problem of scepticism, the lottery and preface paradoxes, the viability of multiple premise closure, the internalist/externalist debate, the psychology of human reasoning, and the relation between belief and degrees of belief. Ultimately, this way of looking at justification guides us to a new, unfamiliar picture of how we should respond to our evidence and manage our own fallibility. This picture is developed here.

Author : Ludomir M. Laudański
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 314 pages
File Size : 50,36 MB
Release : 2012-10-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 3642256961

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„Between Certainty & Uncertainty” is a one-of–a-kind short course on statistics for students, engineers and researchers. It is a fascinating introduction to statistics and probability with notes on historical origins and 80 illustrative numerical examples organized in the five units: · Chapter 1 Descriptive Statistics: Compressing small samples, basic averages - mean and variance, their main properties including God’s proof; linear transformations and z-scored statistics . · Chapter 2 Grouped data: Udny Yule’s concept of qualitative and quantitative variables. Grouping these two kinds of data. Graphical tools. Combinatorial rules and qualitative variables. Designing frequency histogram. Direct and coded evaluation of quantitative data. Significance of percentiles. · Chapter 3 Regression and correlation: Geometrical distance and equivalent distances in two orthogonal directions as a prerequisite to the concept of two regression lines. Misleading in interpreting two regression lines. Derivation of the two regression lines. Was Hubble right? Houbolt’s cloud. What in fact measures the correlation coefficient? · Chapter 4 Binomial distribution: Middle ages origins of the binomials; figurate numbers and combinatorial rules. Pascal’s Arithmetical Triangle. Bernoulli’s or Poisson Trials? John Arbuthnot curing binomials. How Newton taught S. Pepys probability. Jacob Bernoulli’s Weak Law of Large Numbers and others. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace. · Chapter 1 Descriptive Statistics: Compressing small samples, basic averages - mean and variance, their main properties including God’s proof; linear transformations and z-scored statistics . · Chapter 2 Grouped data: Udny Yule’s concept of qualitative and quantitative variables. Grouping these two kinds of data. Graphical tools. Combinatorial rules and qualitative variables. Designing frequency histogram. Direct and coded evaluation of quantitative data. Significance of percentiles. · Chapter 3 Regression and correlation: Geometrical distance and equivalent distances in two orthogonal directions as a prerequisite to the concept of two regression lines. Misleading in interpreting two regression lines. Derivation of the two regression lines. Was Hubble right? Houbolt’s cloud. What in fact measures the correlation coefficient? · Chapter 4 Binomial distribution: Middle ages origins of the binomials; figurate numbers and combinatorial rules. Pascal’s Arithmetical Triangle. Bernoulli’s or Poisson Trials? John Arbuthnot curing binomials. How Newton taught S. Pepys probability. Jacob Bernoulli’s Weak Law of Large Numbers and others. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace.

Author : Krzysztof Burdzy
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 270 pages
File Size : 12,97 MB
Release : 2009
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9814273708

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This volume represents a radical departure from the current philosophical duopoly in the area of foundations of probability, that is, the frequency and subjective theories. One of the main new ideas is a set of scientific laws of probability. The new laws are simple, intuitive and, last but not least, they agree well with the contents of current textbooks on probability. Another major new claim is that the ?frequency statistics? has nothing in common with the ?frequency philosophy of probability,? contrary to popular belief. Similarly, contrary to the general perception, the ?Bayesian statistics? shares nothing in common with the ?subjective philosophy of probability.? This volume is non-partisan on the scientific side ? that it is supportive of both frequency statistics and Bayesian statistics. On the other hand, it contains well-documented and thoroughly-explained criticisms of the frequency and subjective philosophies of probability. Short reviews of other philosophical theories of probability and basic mathematical methods of probability and statistics are incorporated. This volume includes essential chapters on decision theory and teaching probability, and it is easily accessible to the general audience.

Author : Barbara J. Shapiro
Publisher :
Page : 347 pages
File Size : 46,73 MB
Release : 1983
Category : England
ISBN : 9780691053790

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The Description for this book, Probability and Certainty in Seventeenth-Century England: A Study of the Relationships Between National Science, Religion, History, Law, and Literature, will be forthcoming.

Author : Krzysztof Burdzy
Publisher : World Scientific
Page : 270 pages
File Size : 19,81 MB
Release : 2009-04-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9814467839

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This volume represents a radical departure from the current philosophical duopoly in the area of foundations of probability, that is, the frequency and subjective theories. One of the main new ideas is a set of scientific laws of probability. The new laws are simple, intuitive and, last but not least, they agree well with the contents of current textbooks on probability. Another major new claim is that the “frequency statistics” has nothing in common with the “frequency philosophy of probability,” contrary to popular belief. Similarly, contrary to the general perception, the “Bayesian statistics” shares nothing in common with the “subjective philosophy of probability.”The book is non-partisan on the scientific side — it is supportive of both frequency statistics and Bayesian statistics. On the other hand, it contains well-documented and thoroughly-explained criticisms of the frequency and subjective philosophies of probability. Short reviews of other philosophical theories of probability and basic mathematical methods of probability and statistics are incorporated. The book includes substantial chapters on decision theory and teaching probability, and it is easily accessible to the general audience.

Author : Eyal Zamir
Publisher : Oxford Handbooks
Page : 841 pages
File Size : 38,66 MB
Release : 2014
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0199945470

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'The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and Law' brings together leading scholars of law, psychology, and economics to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of this field of research, including its strengths and limitations as well as a forecast of its future development. Its twenty-nine chapters are organized into four parts.

Author : Mayukh Maitra
Publisher : Educreation Publishing
Page : 170 pages
File Size : 35,34 MB
Release :
Category : Self-Help
ISBN :

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"On one end there is the well known probability theory viewed with the systemic approach now meets the best of adaptations for the known system, as for instance the compatibility of work and flow by two engines pulling a train over a specified distance; and on the other end we have the new theory of certainty which enable us with the most aesthetic choice in hand among all the symmetry to rely on, as for instance the assurance of new stipulated intervals or time of operation; where both infallibly lead to great gains in a real time scenario."