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Author : Homayoon Dezfuli
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 15,59 MB
Release : 2009
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN :
Author : Dana Kelly
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 230 pages
File Size : 42,81 MB
Release : 2011-08-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1849961875
Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment provides a Bayesian foundation for framing probabilistic problems and performing inference on these problems. Inference in the book employs a modern computational approach known as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The MCMC approach may be implemented using custom-written routines or existing general purpose commercial or open-source software. This book uses an open-source program called OpenBUGS (commonly referred to as WinBUGS) to solve the inference problems that are described. A powerful feature of OpenBUGS is its automatic selection of an appropriate MCMC sampling scheme for a given problem. The authors provide analysis “building blocks” that can be modified, combined, or used as-is to solve a variety of challenging problems. The MCMC approach used is implemented via textual scripts similar to a macro-type programming language. Accompanying most scripts is a graphical Bayesian network illustrating the elements of the script and the overall inference problem being solved. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment also covers the important topics of MCMC convergence and Bayesian model checking. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment is aimed at scientists and engineers who perform or review risk analyses. It provides an analytical structure for combining data and information from various sources to generate estimates of the parameters of uncertainty distributions used in risk and reliability models.
Author : Curtis Smith
Publisher :
Page : 432 pages
File Size : 14,90 MB
Release : 2012-02-27
Category :
ISBN : 9781470080549
During the past several decades, much has been written on PRA methods and applications. Several university and practitioner textbooks and sourcebooks currently exist, but they focus on applications of PRA to industries other than aerospace. Although some of the techniques used in PRA originated in work for aerospace and military applications, no comprehensive reference currently exists for PRA applications to aerospace systems. This PRA Procedures Guide, in the present second edition, is neither a textbook nor an exhaustive sourcebook of PRA methods and techniques. It provides a set of recommended procedures, based on the experience of the authors, that are applicable to different levels and types of PRA that are performed for aerospace applications. It therefore serves two purposes, to:1. Complement the training material taught in the NASA PRA course for practitioners, and together with the Fault Tree Handbook, the Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook, the Bayesian Inference handbook, the Risk Management Handbook, and the System Safety Handbook to provide quantitative risk methodology documentation, and to2. Provide aerospace PRA practitioners in selecting an analysis approach that is best suited for their applications.
Author : Homayoon Dezfuli
Publisher :
Page : 118 pages
File Size : 45,69 MB
Release : 2012-02-27
Category :
ISBN : 9781470116910
System safety is the application of engineering and management principles, criteria, and techniques to optimize safety within the constraints of operational effectiveness, time, and cost throughout all phases of the system life cycle. System safety is to safety as systems engineering is to engineering. When performing appropriate analysis, the evaluation is performed holistically by tying into systems engineering practices and ensuring that system safety has an integrated system-level perspective.The NASA System Safety Handbook presents the overall framework for System Safety and provides the general concepts needed to implement the framework. The treatment addresses activities throughout the system life cycle to assure that the system meets safety performance requirements and is as safe as reasonably practicable.This handbook is intended for project management and engineering teams and for those with review and oversight responsibilities. It can be used both in a forward-thinking mode to promote the development of safe systems, and in a retrospective mode to determine whether desired safety objectives have been achieved.The topics covered in this volume include general approaches for formulating a hierarchy of safety objectives, generating a corresponding hierarchical set of safety claims, characterizing the system safety activities needed to provide supporting evidence, and presenting a risk-informed safety case that validates the claims. Volume 2, to be completed in 2012, will provide specific guidance on the conduct of the major system safety activities and the development of the evidence.
Author : Michael S. Hamada
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 445 pages
File Size : 16,73 MB
Release : 2008-08-15
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0387779507
Bayesian Reliability presents modern methods and techniques for analyzing reliability data from a Bayesian perspective. The adoption and application of Bayesian methods in virtually all branches of science and engineering have significantly increased over the past few decades. This increase is largely due to advances in simulation-based computational tools for implementing Bayesian methods. The authors extensively use such tools throughout this book, focusing on assessing the reliability of components and systems with particular attention to hierarchical models and models incorporating explanatory variables. Such models include failure time regression models, accelerated testing models, and degradation models. The authors pay special attention to Bayesian goodness-of-fit testing, model validation, reliability test design, and assurance test planning. Throughout the book, the authors use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for implementing Bayesian analyses -- algorithms that make the Bayesian approach to reliability computationally feasible and conceptually straightforward. This book is primarily a reference collection of modern Bayesian methods in reliability for use by reliability practitioners. There are more than 70 illustrative examples, most of which utilize real-world data. This book can also be used as a textbook for a course in reliability and contains more than 160 exercises. Noteworthy highlights of the book include Bayesian approaches for the following: Goodness-of-fit and model selection methods Hierarchical models for reliability estimation Fault tree analysis methodology that supports data acquisition at all levels in the tree Bayesian networks in reliability analysis Analysis of failure count and failure time data collected from repairable systems, and the assessment of various related performance criteria Analysis of nondestructive and destructive degradation data Optimal design of reliability experiments Hierarchical reliability assurance testing
Author : Tim Bedford
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 45,73 MB
Release : 2001-04-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780521773201
A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.
Author : Robert B. Gramacy
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 560 pages
File Size : 22,59 MB
Release : 2020-03-10
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1000766209
Computer simulation experiments are essential to modern scientific discovery, whether that be in physics, chemistry, biology, epidemiology, ecology, engineering, etc. Surrogates are meta-models of computer simulations, used to solve mathematical models that are too intricate to be worked by hand. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a supremely flexible tool for the analysis of computer simulation experiments. This book presents an applied introduction to GP regression for modelling and optimization of computer simulation experiments. Features: • Emphasis on methods, applications, and reproducibility. • R code is integrated throughout for application of the methods. • Includes more than 200 full colour figures. • Includes many exercises to supplement understanding, with separate solutions available from the author. • Supported by a website with full code available to reproduce all methods and examples. The book is primarily designed as a textbook for postgraduate students studying GP regression from mathematics, statistics, computer science, and engineering. Given the breadth of examples, it could also be used by researchers from these fields, as well as from economics, life science, social science, etc.
Author : Marvin Rausand
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 467 pages
File Size : 30,53 MB
Release : 2013-06-12
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1118281101
An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Author : Duane Kritzinger
Publisher : Woodhead Publishing
Page : 424 pages
File Size : 20,92 MB
Release : 2016-09-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0081009321
Aircraft System Safety: Assessments for Initial Airworthiness Certification presents a practical guide for the novice safety practitioner in the more specific area of assessing aircraft system failures to show compliance to regulations such as FAR25.1302 and 1309. A case study and safety strategy beginning in chapter two shows the reader how to bring safety assessment together in a logical and efficient manner. Written to supplement (not replace) the content of the advisory material to these regulations (e.g. AMC25.1309) as well as the main supporting reference standards (e.g. SAE ARP 4761, RTCA/DO-178, RTCA/DO-154), this book strives to amalgamate all these different documents into a consolidated strategy with simple process maps to aid in their understanding and optimise their efficient use. Covers the effect of design, manufacturing, and maintenance errors and the effects of common component errors Evaluates the malfunctioning of multiple aircraft components and the interaction which various aircraft systems have on the ability of the aircraft to continue safe flight and landing Presents and defines a case study (an aircraft modification program) and a safety strategy in the second chapter, after which each of the following chapters will explore the theory of the technique required and then apply the theory to the case study
Author : Mohammad Modarres
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 472 pages
File Size : 17,77 MB
Release : 2009-09-22
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1420008943
Tools to Proactively Predict Failure The prediction of failures involves uncertainty, and problems associated with failures are inherently probabilistic. Their solution requires optimal tools to analyze strength of evidence and understand failure events and processes to gauge confidence in a design’s reliability. Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide, Second Edition has already introduced a generation of engineers to the practical methods and techniques used in reliability and risk studies applicable to numerous disciplines. Written for both practicing professionals and engineering students, this comprehensive overview of reliability and risk analysis techniques has been fully updated, expanded, and revised to meet current needs. It concentrates on reliability analysis of complex systems and their components and also presents basic risk analysis techniques. Since reliability analysis is a multi-disciplinary subject, the scope of this book applies to most engineering disciplines, and its content is primarily based on the materials used in undergraduate and graduate-level courses at the University of Maryland. This book has greatly benefited from its authors' industrial experience. It balances a mixture of basic theory and applications and presents a large number of examples to illustrate various technical subjects. A proven educational tool, this bestselling classic will serve anyone working on real-life failure analysis and prediction problems.