[PDF] Assessing The Fiscal Monetary Policy Mix In The Euro Area eBook

Author :
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 16,49 MB
Release : 2021
Category :
ISBN : 9789289949101

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This paper attempts to gauge the effects of various fiscal and monetary policy rules on macroeconomic outcomes in the euro area. It consists of two major parts - a historical assessment and an assessment based on an extended scenario until 2030 - and it builds on the ECB-BASE - a semi-structural model for the euro area. The historical analysis (until end-2019, 'pre-pandemic') demonstrates that a consistently countercyclical fiscal policy could have created a fiscal buffer in good economic times and it would have been able to eliminate a large portion of the second downturn in the euro area. In turn, the post-pandemic simulations until 2030 reveal that certain combinations of policy rules can be particularly powerful in reaching favourable macroeconomic outcomes (i.e. recovering pandemic output losses and bringing inflation close to the ECB target). These consist of expansionary-for-longer fiscal policy, which maintains support for longer than usually prescribed, and lower-for-longer monetary policy, which keeps the rates lower for longer than stipulated by a standard reaction function of a central bank. Moreover, we demonstrate that in the current macroeconomic situation, fiscal and monetary policies reinforce each other and mutually create space for each other. This provides a strong case for coordination of the two policies in this situation.

Author : Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher :
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 36,87 MB
Release : 2017
Category :
ISBN : 9789279649110

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This paper explores the reasons for the suboptimal fiscal-monetary policy mix in the euro area in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and ways in which the status quo can be improved. A comparison of fiscal and monetary policies and of economic outcomes in the euro area and the United States suggests that both fiscal and monetary policy in the euro area have been overly tight. Fiscal policy has been hampered by the institutional framework which constrains individual states and lacks instruments to secure an appropriate aggregate stance. ECB monetary policy has been hampered by the distributional effects of balance sheet policies which needed to be adopted at the zero lower bound, and by discretionary decisions taken before the crisis such as the reliance on credit rating agencies for determining collateral eligibility for monetary operations. The compromising of the "safe asset" status of euro area sovereign debt during the crisis complicated fiscal and monetary policy. Changes in the discretionary decisions governing the implementation of monetary policy in the euro area can potentially reduce the distributional effects of policy and improve the fiscal-policy mix and longerterm prospects for the euro area.

Author : Francesco Farina
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 238 pages
File Size : 22,64 MB
Release : 2007-11-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1134109385

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Providing readers with a multi-faceted assessment of the implementation of fiscal policies in the euro zone and their macroeconomic effects five years after the inception of the euro, this book, international in perspective and scope, is the first reliable reference source for discussions in this area for both academics and policy makers. Comprising contributions from distinguished researchers from different European countries and institutions the issues addressed include the: monetary and fiscal policy-mix evolution and control of fiscal aggregates over the business cycle and their implications for the SGP rules accountability of debt evolution financial spill-over of national fiscal policies measurement and assessment of automatic stabilizers. Based on empirical evidence as well as being firmly rooted in theoretical analyses and giving particular emphasis to the constraint of the Stability and Growth Pact on the one hand and the presence of a single monetary policy on the other, this book is an invaluable tool students and researchers engaged with macroeconomic stabilization and monetary and fiscal policy interactions, as well as professionals in the public sector and the financial institutions of the EU.

Author : Michael Carlberg
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 21,30 MB
Release : 2006-03-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3540298002

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This book studies the interactions between monetary and fiscal poUcies in the euro area. It carefully discusses the process of policy competition and the structure of policy cooperation. As to policy competition, the focus is on competition between the European central bank, the American central bank, the German government, and the French government. As to policy cooperation, the focus is on the same institutions. These are higher-dimensional issues. The pohcy targets are price stability and full employment. The policy makers follow co- turkey or gradualist strategies. The policy decisions are taken sequentially or simultaneously. Monetary and fiscal policies have spillover effects. Special features of this book are numerical simulations of policy competition and numerical solutions to policy cooperation. The present book is part of a larger research project on European Monetary Union, see the references at the back of the book. Some parts of this project were presented at the World Congress of the International Economic Association. Other parts were presented at the International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis, at the International Institute of Public Finance, at the Macro Study Group of the German Economic Association, at the Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association, at the Gottingen Workshop on International Economics, at the Halle Workshop on Monetary Economics, at the Research Seminar on Macroeconomics in Freiburg, and at the Passau Workshop on International Economics.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 56 pages
File Size : 32,83 MB
Release : 2000-11-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451812965

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For the time being—and possibly for a considerable time to come—developments and prospects for the euro area are quite favorable. This upbeat outlook is underpinned by buoyant activity indicators and a supportive policy mix. High household and business confidence, rising capacity utilization and industrial production, strong job creation, and—so far—employment-friendly wage settlements point to sustained activity in the near term. Moreover, the macroeconomic fundamentals in the euro area appear much sounder than in previous recoveries.

Author : Robert C. M. Beyer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 27,72 MB
Release : 2023-07-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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This paper employs two established macroeconomic models to show that fiscal policy in the euro area can help monetary policy in reducing inflation. Specifically, a fiscal consolidation of 1 percent of GDP for two years and 0.5 percent in the third year across the euro area would ease the policy interest rate by 30-50 basis points relative to the baseline scenario, while lowering inflation. It would also put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward path, with the output costs reversing after the second year. Additionally, a stronger fiscal contribution to the policy mix could mitigate financial fragmentation risks. In the current context of elevated inflation in all euro area economies, the findings suggest two key takeaways: first, synchronized fiscal and monetary policies offer gains even when monetary policy is unconstrained and, second, sharing the burden of lowering inflation through fiscal consolidation among euro area members is beneficial for union-wide inflation reduction, improving debt sustainability and inducing a lower policy rate path.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 86 pages
File Size : 24,76 MB
Release : 2018-07-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484369270

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Overall the resilience of large euro area banks has improved, but important vulnerabilities remain. Capital buffers are in aggregate sizeable relative to immediate threats, but some banks are especially vulnerable to credit risk and others to market risks, including a substantial rise in risk premia. The banking system as a whole has ample liquidity, against a backdrop of ECB support. At a structural level, low profitability is found in many banks across all business models, despite improving conjunctural conditions. The interconnectedness analysis shows that strong buffers are effective in dampening both vulnerabilities and onward transmission. Risks to financial stability relate mainly to tighter financial conditions, weaker growth, and policy and geopolitical uncertainties. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) could potentially disrupt financial market and services, and thus the wider economy. Also, policy reversals could hurt debt sustainability and test the cohesion of policy making in the union.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 36,95 MB
Release : 1998-03-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451844239

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Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.

Author : Luc Eyraud
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 46,57 MB
Release : 2017-01-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1475572913

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This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015. We look for, but do not find, conclusive evidence of bias in procedures in relation to country size. The paper also briefly reviews the literature on political economy factors and policy biases, and offers some reflections on the euro area architecture.

Author : Mr.Ali J Al-Eyd
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 16,89 MB
Release : 2013-10-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484328752

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The ECB has taken a range of actions to address bank funding problems, eliminate excessive risk in sovereign markets, and safeguard monetary transmission. But euro area financial markets have remained fragmented, driving retail interest rates in stressed markets far above those in the core. This has impeded the flow of credit and undermined the transmission of monetary policy. Analysis presented here indicates that the credit channel of monetary policy has broken down during the crisis, particularly in stressed markets, and that SMEs in these economies appear to be most affected by elevated lending rates.Given these stresses, the ECB can undertake additional targeted policy measures, including through additional term loans, collateral policies, and private asset purchases.