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Masterarbeit aus dem Fachbereich Agrarwissenschaften, , Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: This research was done in Nangoma Agricultural Camp in Mumbwa district of Central Zambia on farmers’ perceptions of climatic factors affecting maize yield. Maize is the most common cereal (85%) cultivated in Nangoma Agricultural Camp. However, smallholder maize farmers have been perceiving its yield to be going down from 1990s to date; 70.59% from 1990-2000, 27.45% from 2001-2011, and 17.65% from 2012-2022. Such a farmers’ perception on a downward spiral of maize yield is attributed to their perceived negative impacts of climatic factors like increased temperature (87.25%) and variations in rainfall i.e., late onset 94.12%, early cessation 87.25%), and localized rainfall (67.65%) by smallholder maize farmers in the study area. The overall goal of the study was to investigate perceptions of smallholder maize farmers on climatic factors effecting maize yield in Nangoma Agricultural Camp. The specific objectives were: Assessing smallholder maize farmers’ knowledge about climate change in Nangoma Agricultural Camp, investigating farmers’ perceptions on rainfall pattern seasonally in the study area, investigating farmers’ opinions on trends of maize yield in the study area, identifying climatic challenges associated with maize yields among smallholder maize famers in the study area, and investigating mitigation and adaptation strategies in maize farming among the smallholder maize farmers in the study area. The research design for achieving the above objectives were both quantitative and qualitative research methods; a survey, 3 Focus Group Discussion (FGDs), and 6 Key informants or In-depth interviews. Experts from Zambia Meteorological Department, Zambia National Farmers’ Union (ZNFU), extension officers from the Ministry of Agriculture working in Nangoma Agricultural Camp, Climate Change Network of Zambia (CCNZ), the media, and traditional leadership were purposefully identified for qualitative data.
The production of Zea mays (otherwise called maize or corn), which is an important staple food crop in Nigeria, is limited by the impacts of climate change; thus, posing food insecurity in the country. The primary purpose of this study is to assess the perception of smallholders' maize farmers on climate variability; and, their climate change adaptations practices in Anambra State, Nigeria. A multi-stage sampling technique and structure questionnaires were applied to this study. Collected data were analyzed using both descriptive/ inferential statistics, together with a simple technique of geographic information system (GIS). The results show that, approximately 57.2% of climate variability negatively impacts on maize production in the study area. Basically flooding (ׯ = 2.02 ± 1.166), erratic rainfall (ׯ = 2.02 ± 0.816), and decrease in crop yield by strange pests and diseases (ׯ = 1.59 ± 0.896) affect maize production. The well-informed farmers practice some climate change adaptations techniques such as: planting of grasses to prevent erosion, and, use of improved maize seeds to withstand environmental stress. In conclusion, the lower the standard deviation values, the more knowledgeable the farmers were about issues of climate variability and on climate change adaptations practices; and, vice-versa.
Climate change is expected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts on South Africa. In particular, rural farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. The extent to which these impacts are felt depends in large part on the extent of adaptation in response to climate change. This research uses a "bottom-up" approach, which seeks to gain insights from the farmers themselves based on a farm household survey. Farm-level data were collected from 794 households in the Limpopo River Basin of South Africa for the farming season 2004-2005. The study examines how farmer perceptions correspond with climate data recorded at meteorological stations in the Limpopo River Basin and analyzes farmers' adaptation responses to climate change and variability. A Heckman probit model and a multinomial logit (MNL) model are used to examine the determinants of adaptation to climate change and variability. The statistical analysis of the climate data shows that temperature has increased over the years. Rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability, with the previous three years being very dry. Indeed, the analysis shows that farmers' perceptions of climate change are in line with the climatic data records. However, only approximately half of the farmers have adjusted their farming practices to account for the impacts of climate change. Lack of access to credit was cited by respondents as the main factor inhibiting adaptation. The results of the multinomial logit and Heckman probit models highlighted that household size, farming experience, wealth, access to credit, access to water, tenure rights, off-farm activities, and access to extension are the main factors that enhance adaptive capacity. Thus, the government should design policies aimed at improving these factors.
'This is a well researched, thorough and impressive work on climate change and agriculture in Africa. I recommend it to students, researchers and practitioners working on climate change issues' Jabavu Clifford Nkomo, senior programme specialist, IDRC This landmark book encompasses a comprehensive assessment of the potential economic impacts of future climate change, and the value of adaptation measures in Africa for different zones, regions, countries and farm types. Researchers developed and applied multiple analytical procedures to assess quantitatively how climate affects current agricultural systems in Africa, enabling them to predict how these systems may be affected in the future by climate change under various global warming scenarios, and suggesting what role adaptation could play. The study is the first to combine spatially referenced household survey data with climatic data at both national and international levels. This book provides vital knowledge about the impacts of climate change on Africa, serving as a guide to policy intervention strategies and investment in adaptation measures. It makes a major contribution to the analysis of climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies, especially in the highly vulnerable farming communities in the developing world. Published with CEEPA and supported by the World Bank.
Maize production accounts for about 40% of the entire area cultivated in South Africa and is highly sensitive to climate variability. Maize is thus conservatively a staple food for more than 70% of the South African population whilst the maize industry stimulates the economy directly by providing secondary industries with over a billion worth of business each year. This study used the production function approach to evaluate likely impacts of climate change on maize production in South Africa. Data for this study have been obtained from experimental research sites in the 19 main maize producing regions in South Africa. The estimated coefficients of the production function model were used to derive measures of elasticity and optimal climate damage points as well as to simulate partial and total impacts of changes in levels of climate variables on maize yield. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) benchmark predictions of global warming for Southern Africa indicates that with the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a hotter and drier climate for the western semi-arid regions of Southern Africa and a hotter and slightly wetter climate for the eastern sub-tropical regions of Southern Africa are anticipated. Results indicated that rainfall and net solar radiation diffused within the maize crop have a non-linear and significant impact on average maize yield. Solar radiation rather than temperature was included in the regression analysis as temperature measures did not perform well. The results illustrated that increasing rainfall levels in all three main growth stages (sowing to emergence, juvenile to tassel initiation, and tassel initiation to grain filling growth stages) would increase maize yields whilst increases in solar radiation particularly during tassel initiation to grain filling would decrease maize yield. These results suggest that farmers could adopt a number of adaptation options including manipulation of planting dates, introduction of heat tolerant maize varieties and other options to mitigate the negative impacts of highlighted increases in solar radiation levels. Results also showed that for the semi-dry regions of South Africa, early growth stages of the maize crop would be mostly affected by decreases in rainfall whilst for the wet eastern regions the forecasted drier conditions would affect mostly the late maize growth stages. To capture the cumulative impact of increasing solar radiation and rainfall amounts marginally across all growth stages, a climate simulation analysis whereby the two main IPCC warming scenarios predicted for the Southern Africa region were used. In the partial effects analysis rainfall and solar radiation changes were simulated separately for each growth stage at a time, whereas in the total effects analysis rainfall and solar radiation changes were simulated simultaneously across all growth stages. Results of these analyses suggest that the west semi-dry regions of South Africa might benefit from the forecasted decreases in both rainfall and solar radiation, especially if sensitivity of the maize crop during its second growth stage is mitigated through the introduction of irrigation. This study also illustrated that maize production in the wet east regions might benefit in all its three growth stages from the forecasted increases in rainfall and solar radiation, especially if sensitivity of the first growth stage is reduced through the possible shifting of planting dates to mitigate the effects of increased rainfall forecasted for this region. One should note however, that the maize crop has the ability to agronomically adapt easily to drier conditions. Other attributes which further assists the resistance of the maize crop to climate changes, include extensive conservation soil tillage farming practices which could be applied to optimise soil infiltration rates whilst minimising evaporation rates, thus reducing soil erosion. The above results highlight the need for investments in improving the adaptive capacity of farmers, especially small-scale farmers who are severely restricted by their heavy reliance on natural climate factors and at the same time lack complementary inputs and institutional support systems. The existence of institutional support systems may assist farmers in further understanding anticipated climate changes and available conservation agricultural practices e.g. cost effective irrigation control systems. Other adaptation options include improved capacity of all the stakeholders involved in maize production (farmers, processors, marketers, exporters etc.) to better the ability to cope with the adversities of climate change through the use of farm planning, available crop insurance systems with regards to floods and droughts, improved weather and climate monitoring and forecasting. At a regional scale, extensive agricultural planning and risk reduction programmes may assist with spreading losses over larger regional areas, which may serve to reduce overall risk to growers. One important limitation of this study was that the analyses focused on the experimental sites only and hence did not consider all maize production areas across the country (which includes sites under small-scale farming). Also, the model adopted for this study also did not include the effects of carbon dioxide fertilisation and price movements, which are crucial. In conclusion, then, there is an urgent need for the South African National Department of Agriculture to look at how maize farmers (and especially small-scale farmers) could be assisted in adapting their traditional cropping methods to the forecasted changes in climate, whilst taking into consideration all the options presented above.
Climate change has been a significant issue since the end of the 20th century, and impacts a variety of economic sectors, primarily agriculture. The negative impacts of climate change on agricultural production are important because agriculture is closely linked to food security. Although they contribute the least to global pollution, it is estimated that African countries will be the most affected by climate variability. Our paper analyzes the impact of climate change on agricultural production in 11 Eastern and Southern African countries (ESA) during the period from 1961 to 2011 and estimates a panel data model for agricultural production using climate variables (e.g., annual precipitation and annual mean temperature) and economic factors (e.g., livelihood, fertilizer use, machinery, agricultural land, and labor) as explanatory variables.
This book is a biography based on a qualitative ethnographic study of adaptation to climate by Mr Zephaniah Phiri Maseko, an award-winning smallholder farmer from Zvishavane, rural Zimbabwe. Ethnographic data provides insight and lessons of Mr Phiri Maseko and other farmers practices for rethinking existing strategies for adaptation to climate change. The concept of adaptation is probed in relationship to the closely related concepts of vulnerability, resilience and innovation. This study also explores the concept of conviviality and argues that Mr Phiri Masekos adaptation to climate hinges on mediating barriers between local and exogenous knowledge systems. The book argues that Mr Phiri Maseko offered tangible adaptive climate strategies through his innovations that marry water and soil so that it wont elope and run-off but raise a family on his plot. His agricultural practices are anchored on the Shona concept ofhurudza(an exceptionally productive farmer). This book explores the concept and practices ofuhurudza,to suggest that the latter-dayhurudza(commercial farmer)as embodied by Mr Phiri Maseko offers an important set of resources for the development of climate adaptation strategies in the region. This study of smallholder farmers adoption of innovations to climate highlights the complex interplay of multiple factors that act as barriers to uptake. Such interplay of multiple stressors increases the vulnerability of smallholders. The study concludes by arguing that in as much as the skewed colonial land policy impoverished the smallholder farmers, Mr Phiri Maseko nonetheless redefined himself as a latter-dayhurudzaand thus breaks free from the poverty cycle by conjuring ingenious ways of reducing vulnerability to climate. The book does not suggest that Mr Phiri Masekos innovations offer a silver bullet solution to the insecure rural livelihoods of smallholder farmers; nevertheless, they are a source of hope in an environment of uncertainty. His steely tenacity in the face of a multi-stressor environment is to be treasured.