[PDF] Anticipating Balance Of Payments Crises The Role Of Early Warning Systems eBook

Author : Mr.Eduardo Borensztein
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 32,19 MB
Release : 2000-01-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781557758286

GET BOOK

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.

Author : Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 14,19 MB
Release : 2000-09-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781557758842

GET BOOK

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 10,62 MB
Release : 2003-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451845138

GET BOOK

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.

Author : Andrew Berg
Publisher :
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 49,68 MB
Release : 2000-01-01
Category :
ISBN : 9781557759856

GET BOOK

The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes a look at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Author : Hali J. Edison
Publisher :
Page : 86 pages
File Size : 45,40 MB
Release : 2000
Category : Financial crises
ISBN :

GET BOOK

The object of this paper is to develop an operational early warning system (EWS) that can detect financial crises. To achieve this goal the paper analyzes and extends the early warning system developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) that is based on the "signal" approach. This system monitors several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds (or falls below) a threshold, then it is said to issue a "signal" that a currency crisis may occur within a given period. The model does a fairly good job of anticipating some of the crises in 1997/1998, but several weaknesses to the approach are identified. The paper also evaluates how this system can be applied to an individual country. On balance, the results in this paper are mixed, but the results suggest that an early warning system should be thought of as a useful diagnostic tool.

Author : Paolo Manasse
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 40,5 MB
Release : 2003-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451875258

GET BOOK

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.

Author : Barry J. Eichengreen
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 396 pages
File Size : 14,42 MB
Release : 2004
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262550598

GET BOOK

An analysis of the connections between capital flows and financial crises as well as between capital flows and economic growth.

Author : M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 475 pages
File Size : 27,61 MB
Release : 2021-03-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1464815283

GET BOOK

This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.

Author : Peter Isard
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 388 pages
File Size : 28,81 MB
Release : 2005
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521605076

GET BOOK

Economic globalization has given rise to frequent and severe financial crises in emerging market economies. Other countries are also unsuccessful in their efforts to generate economic growth and reduce poverty. This book provides perspectives on various aspects of the international financial system that contribute to financial crises and growth failures, and discusses the remedies that economists have proposed for addressing the underlying problems. It also sheds light on a central feature of the international financial system that remains mysterious to many economists and most non-economists: the activities of the International Monetary Fund and the factors that influence its effectiveness. Dr Isard offers policy perspectives on what countries can do to reduce their vulnerabilities to financial crises and growth failures, and a number of general directions for systemic reform. The breadth of the agenda provides grounds for optimism that the international financial system can be strengthened considerably without revolutionary change.

Author : Jochen Andritzky
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 34,94 MB
Release : 2006-11-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3540374493

GET BOOK

Past cycles of sovereign lending and default suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Surveying the sovereign bond market, the author provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.