[PDF] A State Core Forecasting And Policy Simulation Model eBook

Author : G.I. Treyz
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 522 pages
File Size : 19,65 MB
Release : 2013-11-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9401728747

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Regional economic models are the key to predicting the effects of transportation, economic development, energy, fiscal and environmental policies. Despite this, the principal regional economic policy analysis model used throughout the United States by government agencies, universities, and the private sector has not been presented in a book until now. The approach to building, understanding and using regional models presented in Regional Economic Models: A Systematic Approach to Forecasting and Policy Analysis is progressive. It begins with the simplest possible models and concludes with a full presentation of the leading model used by policy makers today. The full details are presented along with facilitating software, which is made available so that the reader can build a prototype model for any state or country and can perform policy simulations with full operational models for a sample area. Policy studies are discussed that have been carried out with the model, as well as the range of ways in which policies can be tested through policy simulations. The necessary background is developed for understanding the ways in which models can be used to improve the basis upon which policies are evaluated, as well as the sensitivity of the predicted effects to the model chosen for the analysis. The presentation is multifaceted and includes equations, diagrams and numerical examples. The professional literature is integrated with introductory materials to produce the first comprehensive book on regional modeling that extends from economic base models to modeling advances that are currently being published in economic journals.

Author : Ben Hunt
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 30,80 MB
Release : 2003
Category :
ISBN :

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Uncertainty in applied macroeconomic policy analysis arises from three distinct sources. The first, often referred to as model uncertainty, arises because the models used for policy analysis are simple abstractions of the complex behavioural interactions that occur in an economy. The second source, denoted shock uncertainty, arises from unforeseen events that the analysis cannot explicitly factor in ex ante. Finally, starting-point uncertainty reflects the fact that given data lags and revisions, often it is difficult to assess the current state of the economy. This paper discusses the approach the Reserve Bank has taken to enable its Forecasting and Policy System (FPS) to quantify the implications that the typical level of shock uncertainty might be expected have on the analysis of alternative policy actions designed to achieve the objectives of monetary policy.

Author :
Publisher :
Page : 24 pages
File Size : 23,95 MB
Release : 1997
Category : Economic forecasting
ISBN :

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"A new macroeconomic modelling framework ... the Forecasting and Policy System (FPS)"--Introd