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In line with the rational expectations' approach, economists emphasize transparency as a key factor for Central Banks' credibility. In this paper, a psychological approach yields different results: trust in the Banks' policy is associated with the professionalism and independence of the Bank and not with its transparency. It is a subtle difference, because transparency is indeed a positive factor in the overall image of the Bank, but a statistical analysis shows that not all aspects of the positive image are relevant to trust in the Bank's inflationary policy.
This is the first book to explain why people misunderstand economics. From the cognitive shortcuts we use to make sense of complex information, to the metaphors we rely on and their effect on our thinking, this important book lays bare not only the psychological traits that distort our ability to understand such a vital topic, but also what this means for policy makers and civil society more widely. Accessibly written, the book explores the mismatch between the complexities of economics and the constraints of human cognition that lie at the root of our misconceptions. The authors document and explain the gamut of cognitive strategies laypeople employ as they grapple with such complex topics as inflation, unemployment, economic crises, finance, and money in the modern economy. The book examines sources of misconceptions ranging from the intentionality fallacy, whereby economic phenomena are assumed to have been caused deliberately rather than to have come about by an interplay of many agents and causal factors, to the role of ideology in framing economic thinking. Exposing the underlying biases and assumptions that undermine financial and economic literacy, and concluding with recommendations for how policies and ideas should be framed to enable a clearer understanding, this will be essential reading not only for students and researchers across psychology and economics, but also anyone interested in progressive public policy. Visit the associated website for the book here: http://www.misunderstandeconomics.com/
This report by the Central Bank Governance Group presents information intended to help decision-makers set up governance arrangements that are most suitable for their own circumstances. The report draws on a large body of information on the design and operation of central banks that the BIS has brought together since it initiated work on central bank governance in the early 1990s. The need to deal with chronic inflation in the 1970s and 1980s prompted the identification of price stability as a formal central bank objective and led to a significant reworking of governance arrangements. The current global financial crisis could have equally important implications for central banks, particularly with respect to their role in fostering financial stability. Although it is too early to know how central banking will change as a result, the report takes an important first step in identifying governance questions that the crisis poses.
Author : Alan S. Blinder Publisher : Centre for Economic Policy Research Page : 150 pages File Size : 24,45 MB Release : 2001 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781898128601
Not long ago, secrecy was the byword in central banking circles, but now the unmistakable trend is towards greater openness and transparency. This, the third Geneva Report on the World Economy, describes and evaluates some of the changes in how central banks talk to the markets, to the press, and to the public. The report first assesses the case for transparency ? defined as providing sufficient information for the public to understand the policy regime ? and concludes that it is very strong, based on both policy effectiveness and democratic accountability. It then examines what should be the content of communication and argues that central banks ought to spell out their long-run objectives and methods. It then investigates the link between the decision-making process and central bank communication, drawing a distinction between individualistic and collegial committees. The report concludes with a review of the communications strategies of some of the main central banks.
This paper develops a new central bank transparency index for inflation-targeting central banks (CBT-IT index). It applies the CBT-IT index to the Czech National Bank (CNB), one of the most transparent inflation-targeting central banks. The CNB has invested heavily in developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to implement a full-fledged inflation-forecast-targeting (IFT) regime. The components of CBT-IT index include measures of transparency about monetary policy objectives, the FPAS designed to support IFT, and the monetary policymaking process. For the CNB, all three components have shown substantial improvements over time but a few gaps remain. The CNB is currently working on eliminating some of these gaps.
Author : Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger Publisher : International Finance Section Department of Econ Ton Univers Page : 100 pages File Size : 37,11 MB Release : 1996 Category : Business & Economics ISBN :
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
This volume is a collection of papers which were presented and discussed at a conference on "Aspects of Central Bank Policy Making" which took place in January 1990 at the Bank of Israel and Tel Aviv University. The conference marked the tenth anniversary of the passing of David Horowitz who was the first governor of the Bank of Israel. The conference was sponsored by the Bank of Israel and the David Horowitz Institute for the Research of Developing Countries at Tel Aviv University. Eitan Berglas, Zvi Eckstein and Mordechai Fraenkel served as organizing committee. The volume has three parts. The first part deals with the rules and the constraints that are fundamental for central bank policy making. It starts with a critical review of 75 years of monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, followed by several studies directed at the issues concerning the establishment of a European central bank. The second part deals with the insurance, regulation and safety of commercial banks. The last part contains analysis of monetary policies in Germany and Israel. Part of the research included in this volume is the result of a two years research project on "Central Bank Policies, Disinflation and the Macroeconomy" conducted at the David Horowitz Institute. The contributors to this project were: the Bundesbank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Italy, the Bank of Israel, the Bank for International Settlements and the Bank of the Netherlands.