[PDF] The Shifting And Steepening Of Phillips Curves During The Pandemic Recovery International Evidence And Some Theory eBook

Author : Tryggvi Gudmundsson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 25,86 MB
Release : 2024-01-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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We study the global inflation surge during the pandemic recovery and the implications for aggregate and sectoral Phillips curves. We provide evidence that Phillips curves shifted up and steepened across advanced economies, and that differences in the inflation response across sectors imply the relative price of goods has been pro-cyclical this time around rather than a-cyclical as during previous cycles. We show analytically that these three features emerge endogenously in a two-sector new-Keynesian model when we introduce unbalanced recoveries that run against a supply constraint in the goods sector. A calibrated exercise shows that the resulting changes to the output-inflation relation are quantitatively important and improve the model's ability to replicate the inflation surge during this period.

Author : Sree Kochugovindan
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,27 MB
Release : 2023
Category : Globalization
ISBN :

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Using panel data techniques, we draw on the Phillips curve framework to address gaps in the cross-country inflation literature. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the relative contributions of cyclical and structural drivers to inflation dynamics, the latter including globalisation, innovation, and demographics. We also assess how parameters vary across advanced and emerging economies, as well as goods and services sectors. Our results highlight the importance of both backward and forward-looking inflation expectations, and in turn monetary policy credibility. While structural factors play a role in inflation dynamics, their influence is modest, felt over many years and able to be offset by central banks. Supply-side drivers should be thought of as headwinds or tailwinds rather than true determinants of inflation in the medium and long term, though, we do find evidence that globalisation and technological innovation helped flatten the Phillips curve in the 20-years before the pandemic. This implies some risk of re-steepening if the trend towards the fragmentation of the global trading system were to continue, though technological progress continues to work in the opposite direction. Finally, we investigate whether the pandemic has served to alter the position or slope of the Phillips curve. We think the evidence is more consistent with the pandemic helping uncover a steeper section of the curve rather than causing a more fundamental shift or steepening over more normal ranges for economic slack. But that benign conclusion is contingent on central banks doing what is necessary to return inflation swiftly to their targets.

Author : Mr. Anil Ari
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 14,91 MB
Release : 2023-05-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN :

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This paper analyzes whether structural changes in the aftermath of the pandemic have steepened the Phillips curves in advanced economies, reversing the flattening observed in recent decades and reducing the sacrifice ratio associated with disinflation. Particularly, analysis of granular price quote data from the UK indicates that increased digitalization may have raised price flexibility, while de-globalization may have made inflation more responsive to domestic economic conditions again. Using sectoral data from 24 advanced economies in Europe, higher digitalization and lower trade intensity are shown to be associated with steeper Phillips curves. Post-pandemic Phillips curve estimates indicate some steepening in the UK, Spain, Italy and the euro area as a whole, but at magnitudes that are too small to explain the entire surge in inflation in 2021–22, suggesting an important role for outward shifts in the Phillips curve.

Author : Konrad Raczkowski
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 307 pages
File Size : 36,81 MB
Release : 2024-09-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1040153410

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The struggle for world leadership between China and the United States, resulting in Russia's war with Ukraine, among other things, underscores the reality of structural changes in the global economy and the global system. This book explains that a new era of egocentrism and polycrisis in a multipolar system has emerged in international economic policy, with a strong drive toward interventionism and protectionism of national economies. Dynamic economic imbalances are becoming a constant factor in disrupting international competitiveness and forcing changes in both monetary policy and general economic policy. This prompts a new, more pragmatic definition of fundamental concepts in the theoretical sphere as well as an up-to-date and viable cause-and-effect narrative that is not disconnected from decision-making processes in the economic and political spheres. This book provides a comprehensive diagnosis of the current global economy landscape and evaluates the processes affecting the economic and financial realities and the effectiveness of economic policies. The recent dynamics have rendered much of the existing literature outdated or confined to individual economies, economic systems, and regions. The book describes the evolution of international economic policy, offering a comparative analysis of foreign trade theories, especially in the context of macroeconomic trends and the impact of international trade in goods and services in the new balance of power of the global economy. Targeted primarily at academics, students, and researchers in economics, finance, international relations, and management, it will also serve as a valuable resource for policymakers shaping and implementing contemporary state economic policies.

Author : Mr.Sergi Lanau
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 11,79 MB
Release : 2018-05-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484356314

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We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S. Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.

Author : Changyong Rhee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 105 pages
File Size : 23,31 MB
Release : 2021-03-05
Category : Health & Fitness
ISBN : 1513566598

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The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.

Author : James Shulmeister
Publisher : Springer
Page : 342 pages
File Size : 31,15 MB
Release : 2016-12-16
Category : Science
ISBN : 9462392374

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This book brings together an overview of the recent geological history, active earth and biological processes and human settlement of New Zealand. Topics covered include the very active neotectonic and volcanic setting. Mountain geomorphic processes are examined and new ideas about landsliding are highlighted. The exceptional sedimentary archives of the Whanganui Basin are also presented. As one of two land masses that extend into the southern mid-latitudes, New Zealand is ideally located to investigate changes in Southern Ocean climate. Related to this, mountain glaciation in New Zealand is a focus in global climate change debates. New Zealand also has a unique biota due to its long isolation and is the last major land mass to be settled by people. Advances in DNA technologies have revolutionised our understanding of the histories and processes involved. The book provides a comprehensive review of existing work and highlights new ideas and major debates across all these fields.

Author : John Orem
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 362 pages
File Size : 45,95 MB
Release : 2012-12-02
Category : Medical
ISBN : 0323154166

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Physiology in Sleep provides the physiological definition of sleep and presents the philosophical approach to sleep that departs from pharmacological and neurophysiological theories of sleep. This book discusses the effects of sleep on cardiovascular and respiratory function, cerebral metabolism and blood flow, as well as temperature regulation. Comprised of eight chapters, this text starts with an overview of the cardiovascular changes that occur during sleep and its direct relevance to human physiology and disease. This book then explores the variety of sleep stages, characteristics, and possible functions. Other chapters consider the evidence of nychtohemeral rhythmicity in man’s hormones that subserve growth, maturation, nurture, reproduction, mineral metabolism, energy regulation, adaptation, and survival. This book further discusses the gastric, esophageal, and intestinal functioning during sleep. The final chapter explores the sleep apnea syndromes and some examples of the sudden infant death syndrome. This book is intended for readers seeking a detailed account of physiology in sleep.

Author : Eoin Macdonald
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 664 pages
File Size : 10,37 MB
Release : 2007-02-21
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1845692543

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Designed for geologists and engineers engaged specifically in the search for gold deposits of all types and as a reference for academics in higher schools of learning, Handbook of gold exploration and evaluation provides principles and detailed explanations that underpin the correct interpretation of day-to-day experience in the field. Problems are addressed with regard to the analysis, interpretation and understanding of the general framework within which both primary and secondary gold resources are explored, developed and exploited. Handbook of gold exploration and evaluation covers a comprehensive range of topics including the nature and history of gold, geology of gold ore deposits, gold deposition in the weathering environment, sedimentation and detrital gold, gold exploration, lateritic and placer gold sampling, mine planning and practise for shallow deposits, metallurgical processes and design, and evaluation, risk and feasibility. Covers the nature and history of gold Addresses problems with regard to the framework in which gold resources are explored, developed and exploited Discusses topics including the geology of gold ore deposits, metallurgical processes and design, evaluation, risk and feasibility