[PDF] The Nonlinear Effects Of Uncertainty Shocks eBook

Author : Laura Jackson Young
Publisher :
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 33,33 MB
Release : 2019
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ISBN :

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We consider the effects of uncertainty shocks in a nonlinear VAR that allows uncertainty to have amplification effects. When uncertainty is relatively low, fluctuations in uncertainty have small, linear effects. In periods of high uncertainty, the effect of a further increase in uncertainty is magnified. We find that uncertainty shocks in this environment have a more pronounced effect on real economic variables. We also conduct counterfactual experiments to determine the channels through which uncertainty acts. Uncertainty propagates through both the household consumption channel and through businesses delaying investment, providing substantial contributions to the decline in GDP observed after uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find evidence of the ability of systematic monetary policy to mitigate the adverse effects of uncertainty shocks.

Author : Andreas Dibiasi
Publisher :
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 17,37 MB
Release : 2019
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Recent empirical studies suggest that the negative effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger in recessions than during booms. In this study, I provide a theoretical mechanism that can explain this empirical observation. I start from the argument that the effect of uncertainty on investment depends on the degree of irreversibility. I then show that the degree of irreversibility increases during recessionary times. Incorporating this fact in a DSGE model with heterogeneous firms and uncertainty shows that time-varying irreversibility is able to produce state-dependent reactions of macroeconomic aggregates to an uncertainty shock that are similar to those observed in the data.

Author : Giovanni Caggiano
Publisher :
Page : 57 pages
File Size : 23,29 MB
Release : 2017
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We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the ZeroLower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that are economically important. Our results are shown not to be driven by the contemporaneous occurrence of the Great Recession and high financial stress, and to be robust to different ways of modeling unconventional monetary policy. These findings lend support to recent theoretical contributions on the interaction between uncertainty shocks and the stance of monetary policy.

Author : Mario Forni
Publisher :
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 30,84 MB
Release : 2017
Category : Business cycles
ISBN :

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We formalize the idea that uncertainty is generated by news about future developments in economic conditions which are not perfectly predictable by the agents. Using a simple model of limited information, we show that uncertainty shocks can be obtained as the square of news shocks. We develop a two-step econometric procedure to estimate the effects of news and we find highly nonlinear effects. Large news shocks increase uncertainty. This mitigates the effects of good news and amplifies the effects of bad news in the short run. By contrast, small news shocks reduce uncertainty and increase output in the short run. The Volker recession and the Great Recession were exacerbated by the uncertainty effects of news.

Author : Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 23,59 MB
Release : 2017-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1484324013

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Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.

Author : Aaron Popp
Publisher :
Page : 66 pages
File Size : 32,76 MB
Release : 2016
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This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks with an emphasis on the interaction between elevated uncertainty and credit market conditions when the economy is in different regimes (recessions vs. non-recessions). We use a smooth-transition factor-augmented vector autoregression (ST-FAVAR) and a large monthly panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial indicators in our estimation. Our findings are twofold: (1) While an unanticipated increase in uncertainty has adverse effects on the real economy and financial markets, the effects are quantitatively larger during recessions; (2) The financial channel is important in the transmission of uncertainty shocks, with a greater role during recessions and in the short run.

Author : Mr.Sebastian Weber
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 40,98 MB
Release : 2011-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1455219002

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A traditional argument in favor of flexible exchange rates is that they insulate output better from real shocks, because the exchange rate can adjust and stabilize demand for domestic goods through expenditure switching. This argument is weakened in models with high foreign currency debt and low exchange rate pass-through to import prices. The present study evaluates the empirical relevance of these two factors. We analyze the transmission of real external shocks to the domestic economy under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes for a broad sample of countries in a Panel VAR and let the responses vary with foreign currency indebtedness and import structure. We find that flexible exchange rates do not insulate output better from external shocks if the country imports mainly low pass-through goods and can even amplify the output response if foreign indebtedness is high.