[PDF] Sensitivity Analysis In Practice eBook

Author : Andrea Saltelli
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 232 pages
File Size : 25,47 MB
Release : 2004-07-16
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 047087094X

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Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.

Author : Andrea Saltelli
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 43,40 MB
Release : 2008-02-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470725177

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Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.

Author : Andrea Saltelli
Publisher : Wiley
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 10,64 MB
Release : 2000-10-03
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780471998921

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Sensitivity analysis is used to ascertain how a given model output depends upon the input parameters. This is an important method for checking the quality of a given model, as well as a powerful tool for checking the robustness and reliability of its analysis. The topic is acknowledged as essential for good modelling practice, and is an implicit part of any modelling field. · Offers an accessible introduction to sensitivity analysis · Covers all the latest research · Illustrates concepts with numerous examples, applications and case studies · Includes contributions form the leading researchers active in developing strategies for sensitivity analysis The principles of sensitivity analysis area carefully described, and suitable methods for approaching many types of problems are given. The book introduces the modeller to the entire causal assessment chain, from data to predictions, whilst explaining the impact of source uncertainties and framing assumptions. A 'hitch-hiker's guide' is included to allow the more experienced reader to readily access specific applications. Modellers from a wide range of disciplines, including biostatistics, economics, environmental impact assessment, chemistry and engineering will benefit greatly form the numerous examples and applications.

Author : Sébastien Da Veiga
Publisher : SIAM
Page : 307 pages
File Size : 27,67 MB
Release : 2021-10-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1611976693

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This book provides an overview of global sensitivity analysis methods and algorithms, including their theoretical basis and mathematical properties. The authors use a practical point of view and real case studies as well as numerous examples, and applications of the different approaches are illustrated throughout using R code to explain their usage and usefulness in practice. Basics and Trends in Sensitivity Analysis: Theory and Practice in R covers a lot of material, including theoretical aspects of Sobol’ indices as well as sampling-based formulas, spectral methods, and metamodel-based approaches for estimation purposes; screening techniques devoted to identifying influential and noninfluential inputs; variance-based measures when model inputs are statistically dependent (and several other approaches that go beyond variance-based sensitivity measures); and a case study in R related to a COVID-19 epidemic model where the full workflow of sensitivity analysis combining several techniques is presented. This book is intended for engineers, researchers, and undergraduate students who use complex numerical models and have an interest in sensitivity analysis techniques and is appropriate for anyone with a solid mathematical background in basic statistical and probability theories who develops and uses numerical models in all scientific and engineering domains.

Author : Dan G. Cacuci
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 186 pages
File Size : 49,85 MB
Release : 2003-05-28
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1135442975

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As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable investigative scientific tools in their own right. While most techniques used for these analyses are well documented, there has yet to appear a systematic treatment of the method based on adjoint operators, which is applicable to a much wider variety of problems than methods traditionally used in control theory. This book fills that gap, focusing on the mathematical underpinnings of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) and the use of deterministically obtained sensitivities for subsequent uncertainty analysis.

Author : Emanuele Borgonovo
Publisher : Springer
Page : 291 pages
File Size : 39,19 MB
Release : 2017-04-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3319522590

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This book is an expository introduction to the methodology of sensitivity analysis of model output. It is primarily intended for investigators, students and researchers that are familiar with mathematical models but are less familiar with the techniques for performing their sensitivity analysis. A variety of sensitivity methods have been developed over the years. This monograph helps the analyst in her/his first exploration of this world. The main goal is to foster the recognition of the crucial role of sensitivity analysis methods as the techniques that allow us to gain insights from quantitative models. Also, exercising rigor in performing sensitivity analysis becomes increasingly relevant both to decision makers and modelers. The book helps the analyst in structuring her/his sensitivity analysis quest properly, so as to obtain the correct answer to the corresponding managerial question. The first part of the book covers Deterministic Methods, including Tornado Diagrams; One-Way Sensitivity Analysis; Differentiation-Based Methods and Local Sensitivity Analysis with Constraints. The second part looks at Probabilistic Methods, including Regression-Based methods, Variance-Based Methods, and Distribution-Based methods. The final section looks at Applications, including capital budgeting, sensitivity analysis in climate change modelling and in the risk assessment of a lunar space mission.

Author : Ashutosh Kumar
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 49,56 MB
Release : 2023
Category : Business
ISBN : 9781529670431

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Sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the impact of change of one variable (independent variable) on another variable (dependent variable). The important assumption of this analysis is that all other variables remain constant except the variable of interest. Sensitivity analysis has received wide applications across management disciplines. The guide presents steps in performing sensitivity analysis, and interpretation of the output and evaluation of the results. The guide provides a brief overview of considerations in applying it in real-life cases and demonstrates their applications. Also, this how-to-guide presents the application of sensitivity analysis by examining a capital budgeting case-study through impact of changes in cost of capital on the project selection decision. A change in cost of capital would change the net present value of a project; and hence, the project selection decision might change. Thus, sensitivity analysis would help project appraisal managers to examine the risk of a project. This analysis and interpretation can be extended to any business decision situation wherever a variable depends on another variables and chances of variations in the independent variables are there.sensitivity analysis, data table, business decision, project risk.

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 163 pages
File Size : 49,12 MB
Release : 2010-12-21
Category : Medical
ISBN : 030918651X

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Randomized clinical trials are the primary tool for evaluating new medical interventions. Randomization provides for a fair comparison between treatment and control groups, balancing out, on average, distributions of known and unknown factors among the participants. Unfortunately, these studies often lack a substantial percentage of data. This missing data reduces the benefit provided by the randomization and introduces potential biases in the comparison of the treatment groups. Missing data can arise for a variety of reasons, including the inability or unwillingness of participants to meet appointments for evaluation. And in some studies, some or all of data collection ceases when participants discontinue study treatment. Existing guidelines for the design and conduct of clinical trials, and the analysis of the resulting data, provide only limited advice on how to handle missing data. Thus, approaches to the analysis of data with an appreciable amount of missing values tend to be ad hoc and variable. The Prevention and Treatment of Missing Data in Clinical Trials concludes that a more principled approach to design and analysis in the presence of missing data is both needed and possible. Such an approach needs to focus on two critical elements: (1) careful design and conduct to limit the amount and impact of missing data and (2) analysis that makes full use of information on all randomized participants and is based on careful attention to the assumptions about the nature of the missing data underlying estimates of treatment effects. In addition to the highest priority recommendations, the book offers more detailed recommendations on the conduct of clinical trials and techniques for analysis of trial data.