[PDF] Predicting International Crises Through Stability Analysis eBook

Author :
Publisher :
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 35,43 MB
Release : 1978
Category :
ISBN :

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This paper investigates the feasibility of using stability analysis as a medium for predicting international crises. Five international crises that occurred within the last decade were examined using WEIS data on conflictful and cooperative acts. Nine variations on the basic Richardson arms race model theme were used to fit the interactive behavior of the participants, of each crisis and to obtain estimates of the relevant parameters. The parameter estimates for the best fitting models were used to assess the stability of the interaction pattern in each crisis. In general, (using 95% confidence intervals), these patterns were found to be unstable. Due to data limitations, only one 'control' case could be examined; viz., we examined the interactions pattern of a pair of nations during a normal or non-crisis period. While the results are obviously highly tentative, they suggest that non-crisis periods probably do evidence stable reaction patterns. It would appear then that stability analysis may be of some value in forecasting international crises. (Author).

Author : Richard Damania
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 140 pages
File Size : 16,86 MB
Release : 2019-09-27
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1464814856

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Water quantity—too much in the case of floods, or too little in the case of droughts—grabs public attention and the media spotlight. Water quality—being predominantly invisible and hard to detect—goes largely unnoticed. Quality Unknown: The Invisible Water Crisis presents new evidence and new data that call urgent attention to the hidden dangers lying beneath water’s surface. It shows how poor water quality stalls economic progress, stymies human potential, and reduces food production. Quality Unknown examines the effects of water quality on economic growth and finds upstream pollution lowers growth in downstream regions. It reveals that some of the most ubiquitous contaminants in water, such as nitrates and salt, have impacts that are larger, deeper, and wider than has been acknowledged. And it traces the damage to crop yields and the stark implications for food security in affected regions. An important step toward tackling the world’s water quality challenge is recognizing its scale. The world needs reliable, accurate, and comprehensive information so that policy makers can have new insights, decision making can be evidence based, and citizens can call for action. The report calls for a paradigm shift that emphasizes safer, and often more cost-effective remedies that prevent pollution by combining smarter policies with newer technologies. A key message of Quality Unknown is that such solutions exist and change is possible.

Author : Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 48,8 MB
Release : 2000-09-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781557758842

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The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers. The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises. This pamphlet takes alook at attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 28,70 MB
Release : 2021-03
Category :
ISBN : 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author : Andrea Deghi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 11,63 MB
Release : 2020-01-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513525832

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This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.

Author : Noam Chomsky
Publisher : Haymarket Books
Page : 778 pages
File Size : 13,91 MB
Release : 2015-01-26
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 1608464407

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“One of the definitive works on the Israeli Palestinian conflict” from the celebrated New York Times–bestselling author of Hopes and Prospects (Amy Goodman, host of Democracy Now! and author of Breaking the Sound Barrier). From its establishment to the present day, Israel has enjoyed a unique position in the American roster of international friends. In Fateful Triangle, Noam Chomsky explores the character and historical development of this special relationship. The resulting work “may be the most ambitious book ever attempted on the conflict between Zionism and the Palestinians viewed as centrally involving the United States. It is a dogged exposé of human corruption, greed, and intellectual dishonesty. It is also a great and important book, which must be read by anyone concerned with public affairs” (Edward W. Said, from the foreword). “A devastating collection of charges aimed at Israeli and American policies that affect the Palestinian Arabs negatively.” ―Library Journal “Brilliant and unscrupulous.” ―The Observer “A major, timely and devastating analysis of one of the great tragedies.” ―The Tribune “Formidable.” ―The Jewish Quarterly