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Author : Paul Brenton
Publisher :
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 13,50 MB
Release : 1996
Category : Gross domestic product
ISBN : 9789290792086
Author : Stanley Fischer
Publisher :
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 39,50 MB
Release : 2000
Category : Economic stabilization
ISBN :
While output declined in virtually all transition economies in the initial years, the speed and extent of the recovery that followed has varied widely across these countries. The contrast between the more and less successful transitions, the latter largely in the former Soviet Union, raises many questions about the relative roles played by adverse initial conditions, external factors, and reform strategies. This paper summarizes the macroeconomic performance of the transition economies. We first review the initial conditions confronting these economies, the reform strategy that was proposed, and the associated controversies that arose a decade ago. We then account for the widely different outcomes, highlighting the role of exogenous factors and the macroeconomic and structural policies adopted by the countries. We find that both stabilization policies and structural reforms, particularly privatization, contributed to the growth recovery. We also conclude that the faster is the speed of reforms, the quicker is the recovery and the higher is growth.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 27,71 MB
Release : 1998-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 145192836X
This paper analyzes the determinants of growth in 25 transition economies during 1990–97. The paper’s main finding is that macroeconomic stabilization, structural reform, and reduction of government expenditures are key to achieving sustainable growth. Although the initial effect of reforms on output may be negative, over time the best growth performances are in those countries with the greatest progress in implementing reforms. The analysis also confirms that although adverse initial conditions hurt growth, their effect is small compared to the other factors.
Author : Mr.Günther Taube
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 24,89 MB
Release : 1998-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451855354
What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Author : Olivier Blanchard
Publisher : OUP Oxford
Page : 164 pages
File Size : 26,19 MB
Release : 1997-08-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0191521779
Transition in Central and Eastern Europe has led to a U-shaped response of output: a sharp decline in output followed by recovery. Most of the countries of Central Europe seem now firmly on the upside; most of the countries of Eastern Europe are still close to the bottom of the U: an optimistic view is that they are now negotiating the turn. Olivier Blanchard, a distinguished economist who has worked on transition since its beginning, is one of the first to present a unified analysis of the process of transition. The U-shaped response of output, its causes and its implications, are the subject of this book. The text is split into four chapters. The first reviews the facts; the second focuses on the two basic mechanisms underlying transition: reallocation and restructuring; the third looks more closely at a number of issues, from the interactions between restructuring and privatization to the nature of the labour market in transition; the fourth chapter pulls the material together in an analytical model of transition. This model is then used to discuss policy issues, from the design of privatization to the role of fiscal policy in transition.
Author : Mr.Eduardo Borensztein
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 82 pages
File Size : 17,51 MB
Release : 1999-05-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451849443
What are the relative roles of macroeconomic variables, structural policies, and initial conditions in explaining the time path of output in transition and the large observed differences in output performance across transition economies? Using a sample of 26 countries, this paper follows a general-to-specific modeling approach that allows for differential effects of policies and initial conditions on the private and state sectors and for time-dependent effects of initial conditions. While showing some fragility to model specification, the results point to the preeminence of structural reforms over both initial conditions and macroeconomic variables in explaining cross-country differences in performance and the timing of the recovery.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 16,10 MB
Release : 2000-04-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781557758033
This study, another in the series focusing on special issues in transition, reviews the experience of output decline and recovery in the 25 countries of eastern and central Europe and the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union. Although these countries began the process of economic transformation with similar circumstances of output decline, the extent of decline, its duration, and the sustainability of recovery in growth varied considerably. The authors explore the factors behind this variation and find that the most important policies promoting early and sustained recovery were ones that supported financial stabilization and structural reforms in key areas such as private sector development, the tax system, economic liberalization, and secure property rights.
Author : Eteri Kvintradze
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 29 pages
File Size : 22,26 MB
Release : 2010-04-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451982593
The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues. The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970–2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth, while a survey of the economic literature suggests that the Russian economy could be viewed as a weighted combination of virtual and normal forces. If the Russian economy is considered to be dominated by normal market economy forces, higher energy export receipts provide an opportunity for structural reforms while compensating for social costs, making the economy less vulnerable to decline in world energy prices. However, the domination of virtual forces—value transfers from the energy sector to strategic enterprises—suggests that high world energy prices are masking an inefficient manufacturing sector, and that the Russian economy is highly vulnerable to energy price declines.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 39,71 MB
Release : 1998-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 145190133X
This paper analyzes the determinants of growth in 25 transition economies during 1990–97. The paper’s main finding is that macroeconomic stabilization, structural reform, and reduction of government expenditures are key to achieving sustainable growth. Although the initial effect of reforms on output may be negative, over time the best growth performances are in those countries with the greatest progress in implementing reforms. The analysis also confirms that although adverse initial conditions hurt growth, their effect is small compared to the other factors.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 24,39 MB
Release : 2000-04-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781557758033
This study, another in the series focusing on special issues in transition, reviews the experience of output decline and recovery in the 25 countries of eastern and central Europe and the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union. Although these countries began the process of economic transformation with similar circumstances of output decline, the extent of decline, its duration, and the sustainability of recovery in growth varied considerably. The authors explore the factors behind this variation and find that the most important policies promoting early and sustained recovery were ones that supported financial stabilization and structural reforms in key areas such as private sector development, the tax system, economic liberalization, and secure property rights.