[PDF] Naive Decision Making eBook

Author : T. W. Körner
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 375 pages
File Size : 23,66 MB
Release : 2008-10-16
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1139473565

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How should one choose the best restaurant to eat in? Can one really make money at gambling? Or predict the future? Naive Decision Making presents the mathematical basis for making decisions where the outcome may be uncertain or the interests of others have to taken into consideration. Professor Körner takes the reader on an enjoyable journey through many aspects of mathematical decision making, with pithy observations, anecdotes and quotations. Topics include probability, statistics, Arrow's theorem, Game Theory and Nash equilibrium. Readers will also gain a great deal of insight into mathematics in general and the role it can play within society. Intended for those with elementary calculus, this book is ideal as a supplementary text for undergraduate courses in probability, game theory and decision making. Engaging and intriguing, it will also appeal to all those of a mathematical mind. To aid understanding, many exercises are included, with solutions available online.

Author : T. W. Ko ̈rner
Publisher :
Page : 391 pages
File Size : 32,4 MB
Release : 2014-05-14
Category : Decision making
ISBN : 9780511438417

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Takes readers on an enjoyable journey through many aspects of mathematical decision making; the only prerequisite is elementary calculus.

Author : T. W. Körner
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 47,20 MB
Release : 2008-10-16
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780521516167

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How should one choose the best restaurant to eat in? Can one really make money at gambling? Or predict the future? Naive Decision Making presents the mathematical basis for making everyday decisions, which my often be based on very little or uncertain data. Professor Körner takes the reader on an enjoyable journey through many aspects of mathematical decision making, with relatable observations, anecdotes and quotations. Topics include probability, statistics, Arrow's theorem, Game Theory and Nash equilibrium. Readers will also gain a great deal of insight into mathematics in general and the role it can play within society. Suitable for those with elementary calculus, this book is ideal as a supplementary text for undergraduate courses in probability, game theory and decision making. Engaging and intriguing, it will also appeal to all those of a mathematical mind. To aid understanding, many exercises are included, with solutions available online.

Author :
Publisher :
Page : pages
File Size : 40,39 MB
Release : 2009
Category :
ISBN :

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Dynamically inconsistent decision makers have to decide, implicitly or explicitly, what to do about their dynamic inconsistency. Economic theorists have identified three possible responses--to act naively (thus ignoring the dynamic inconsistency), to act resolutely (not letting their inconsistency affect their behaviour) or to act sophisticatedly (hence taking into account their inconsistency). We use data from a unique experiment (which observes both decisions and evaluations) in order to distinguish these three possibilities. We find that the majority of subjects are either naive or resolute (with slightly more being naive) but very few are sophisticated. These results have important implications for predicting the behaviour of people in dynamic situations.

Author : Jean-Charles Pomerol
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 19,70 MB
Release : 2012-12-27
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1118588061

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Making a decision, of any importance, is never simple. On the one hand, specialists in decision theory do not come within the reach of most policy makers and, secondly, there are very few books on pragmatic decision that are not purely anecdotal. In addition, there is virtually no book that provides a link between decision-making and action. This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? How can we avoid being manipulated? What is the proper use of planning? How can we remain rational even if one is not an expert in probabilities? Perhaps more importantly for managers, how does one go from decision to action? So many questions fundamental to the practice of decision-making are addressed. This book dissects all issues that arise almost daily for decision-makers, at least for major decisions. Drawing on numerous examples, this book answers, in plain language and imagery, all your questions. The final chapter takes the form of a brief reminder - everything you have to remember to be a good decision-maker.

Author : Byron M. Roth
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 454 pages
File Size : 41,54 MB
Release : 2002-07
Category : Education
ISBN : 9780742512740

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This text, written by a philosopher and a social psychologist, emphasizes concrete applications of decision research to problems of everyday living, as well as to business, social, and political issues. The text contains scores of interesting examples and problems for analysis, ranging from personal decisions about medical treatment to Truman's decision to use the atomic bomb. There is no other text with such a wide-ranging coverage, with so practical an orientation, with such clear descriptions of the steps to effective decision making, and with so many end-of-chapter problems for analysis and practice.

Author : Ray Crozier
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 282 pages
File Size : 40,96 MB
Release : 2002-09-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1134726775

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This book offers an exciting new collection of recent research on the actual processes that humans use when making decisions in their everyday lives and in business situations. The contributors use cognitive psychological techniques to break down the constituent processes and set them in their social context. The contributors are from many different countries and draw upon a wide range of techniques, making this book a valuable resource to cognitive psychologists in applied settings, economists and managers.

Author : Kerstin Preuschoff
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 144 pages
File Size : 26,84 MB
Release : 2015-06-16
Category : Biological psychiatry
ISBN : 2889194663

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Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.