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All of use heuristics - that is, we reach conclusions using shorthand cues without utilizing or analyzing all of the available information at hand. Here, Kelman takes a step back from the chaos of competing academic debates to consider the wealth of knowledge that a more expansive use of heuristics can open up.
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.
Problem-solving strartegies and the nature of Heuristic informatio n.Heuristics and problem representations. Basic Heuristic-Search procedures. Formal properties of Heuristic methods. Heuristics viewed as information provided by simplified models. Performance analysis of Heuristic methods. Abstract models for quantitative performace analysis. Complexity versus precision of admissible Heuristics. Searching with nonadmissible Heuristics. Game-playing programs. Strategies and models for game-playing programs. Performace analysis for game-searching strategies. Decision quality in game searching. Bibliography. Index.
Well-organized and well-referenced, this book gives a clear presentation of heuristic methodology as a systematic form of qualitative research. Investigators of human experiences will find this book invaluable as a research guide. The author illustrates how heuristic concepts and processes form components of the research design and become the basis for a methodology. There is a clear explanation of how heuristic inquiry works in practice and the actual process of conducting a human science investigation is described in detail.
Most textbooks on modern heuristics provide the reader with detailed descriptions of the functionality of single examples like genetic algorithms, genetic programming, tabu search, simulated annealing, and others, but fail to teach the underlying concepts behind these different approaches. The author takes a different approach in this textbook by focusing on the users' needs and answering three fundamental questions: First, he tells us which problems modern heuristics are expected to perform well on, and which should be left to traditional optimization methods. Second, he teaches us to systematically design the "right" modern heuristic for a particular problem by providing a coherent view on design elements and working principles. Third, he shows how we can make use of problem-specific knowledge for the design of efficient and effective modern heuristics that solve not only small toy problems but also perform well on large real-world problems. This book is written in an easy-to-read style and it is aimed at students and practitioners in computer science, operations research and information systems who want to understand modern heuristics and are interested in a guide to their systematic design and use. This book is written in an easy-to-read style and it is aimed at students and practitioners in computer science, operations research and information systems who want to understand modern heuristics and are interested in a guide to their systematic design and use. This book is written in an easy-to-read style and it is aimed at students and practitioners in computer science, operations research and information systems who want to understand modern heuristics and are interested in a guide to their systematic design and use.
This introduction to the field of hyper-heuristics presents the required foundations and tools and illustrates some of their applications. The authors organized the 13 chapters into three parts. The first, hyper-heuristic fundamentals and theory, provides an overview of selection constructive, selection perturbative, generation constructive and generation perturbative hyper-heuristics, and then a formal definition of hyper-heuristics. The chapters in the second part of the book examine applications of hyper-heuristics in vehicle routing, nurse rostering, packing and examination timetabling. The third part of the book presents advanced topics and then a summary of the field and future research directions. Finally the appendices offer details of the HyFlex framework and the EvoHyp toolkit, and then the definition, problem model and constraints for the most tested combinatorial optimization problems. The book will be of value to graduate students, researchers, and practitioners.
This tutorial-based approach, born out of the author's extensive experience developing software, teaching thousands of students, and critiquing designs in a variety of domains, allows you to apply the guidelines in a personalized manner.
Creative solutions are easily recognizable, after they have been created. But how to attain them? This book is about a promising approach to creative problem solving - the use of heuristics. The main purpose of an heuristic is to make problem solving more efficient, by making past experience - which could guide the generation of new solutions - promptly available. The heuristic approach is widely used in TRIZ (the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving), which is becoming increasingly popular worldwide. Successful results of using heuristics have been reported by companies such as ABB, Bosch, General Motors, Ford, Mitsubishi, Philips, Siemens, among others. With this book, the reader will be able to: - Understand the 121 Heuristics for problem solving, both from their descriptions and from selected examples; - Find the more promising Heuristic(s) for the solution of his/her problems; - Apply the heuristics and find creative solutions to his/her problems.
Author : Carlos Andre Reis Pinheiro Publisher : John Wiley & Sons Page : 256 pages File Size : 25,62 MB Release : 2014-03-03 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1118347609
Employ heuristic adjustments for truly accurate analysis Heuristics in Analytics presents an approach to analysis that accounts for the randomness of business and the competitive marketplace, creating a model that more accurately reflects the scenario at hand. With an emphasis on the importance of proper analytical tools, the book describes the analytical process from exploratory analysis through model developments, to deployments and possible outcomes. Beginning with an introduction to heuristic concepts, readers will find heuristics applied to statistics and probability, mathematics, stochastic, and artificial intelligence models, ending with the knowledge applications that solve business problems. Case studies illustrate the everyday application and implication of the techniques presented, while the heuristic approach is integrated into analytical modeling, graph analysis, text analytics, and more. Robust analytics has become crucial in the corporate environment, and randomness plays an enormous role in business and the competitive marketplace. Failing to account for randomness can steer a model in an entirely wrong direction, negatively affecting the final outcome and potentially devastating the bottom line. Heuristics in Analytics describes how the heuristic characteristics of analysis can be overcome with problem design, math and statistics, helping readers to: Realize just how random the world is, and how unplanned events can affect analysis Integrate heuristic and analytical approaches to modeling and problem solving Discover how graph analysis is applied in real-world scenarios around the globe Apply analytical knowledge to customer behavior, insolvency prevention, fraud detection, and more Understand how text analytics can be applied to increase the business knowledge Every single factor, no matter how large or how small, must be taken into account when modeling a scenario or event—even the unknowns. The presence or absence of even a single detail can dramatically alter eventual outcomes. From raw data to final report, Heuristics in Analytics contains the information analysts need to improve accuracy, and ultimately, predictive, and descriptive power.