[PDF] Dealing With Uncertainties eBook

Author : Manfred Drosg
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 243 pages
File Size : 18,85 MB
Release : 2009-07-30
Category : Science
ISBN : 3642013848

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Dealing with Uncertainties is an innovative monograph that lays special emphasis on the deductive approach to uncertainties and on the shape of uncertainty distributions. This perspective has the potential for dealing with the uncertainty of a single data point and with sets of data that have different weights. It is shown that the inductive approach that is commonly used to estimate uncertainties is in fact not suitable for these two cases. The approach that is used to understand the nature of uncertainties is novel in that it is completely decoupled from measurements. Uncertainties which are the consequence of modern science provide a measure of confidence both in scientific data and in information in everyday life. Uncorrelated uncertainties and correlated uncertainties are fully covered and the weakness of using statistical weights in regression analysis is discussed. The text is abundantly illustrated with examples and includes more than 150 problems to help the reader master the subject.

Author : David Cleden
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 131 pages
File Size : 46,7 MB
Release : 2017-03-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1351920413

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Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.

Author : Susan Jeffers
Publisher : Macmillan + ORM
Page : 261 pages
File Size : 31,69 MB
Release : 2007-04-01
Category : Self-Help
ISBN : 1429975865

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Author of Feel The Fear And Do It Anyway From the multi-million bestselling author of Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway comes a powerful and healing book designed to offer a safety net in a world of never-ending change. It may be one of the most comforting and life-affirming books you will ever read. With her invaluable insights and exercises, Susan Jeffers gives you the tools you need to deal with all the uncertainty in your life with a sense of peace and possibility. You will learn: - Forty-two exercises to help make your life an exciting adventure instead of a continuous worry - How to lighten up and put problems into a life-affirming perspective - The amazing power of the word "maybe" - And much more. You will discover that there is a wondrous, joyous, and abundant life that can exist in the presence of uncertainty. The question is, "What do you need to do to reach this wonderful state?" And the answers abound in Embracing Uncertainty..

Author : Richard Jenkins
Publisher : Museum Tusculanum Press
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 35,37 MB
Release : 2005
Category : Anthropology
ISBN : 9788772899633

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The overall focus of this book is the ways humans deal with life conditions, with destiny, uncertainty and misfortune - how we try to control the risks of living through medicines, technologies and magic. When dealing with questions of health and illness rational solutions and meaningful explanations may be hard to find, and treatment efforts are often guided just as much by hope as by rational choice. Evaluating the risks of illness is just one of a number of ways in which human beings attempt to exert some sense of control over their lives. New methods of testing for ills and new developments in, for example, genetic screening and in vitro fertilisation combined with the growing demands of well-informed patients seem to have turned concern from the actual problems of specific diseases toward controlling life and the risks of living in general. The chapters of this book reflect a common effort to transgress the limits of the medical by drawing on a fundamental concern with the logic of social and cultural practice. The book represents a de-medicalization of medical anthropology and a return to some of the classic themes in anthropology but with a different approach, emphasizing subjectivity, intentionality and agency.

Author : Jeffrey Davis
Publisher : Sounds True
Page : 228 pages
File Size : 44,97 MB
Release : 2021-11-16
Category : Self-Help
ISBN : 1683646894

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Discover how the lost art of wonder can help you cultivate greater creativity, resilience, meaning, and joy as you bring your greatest contributions to life. Beyond grit, focus, and 10,000 hours lies a surprising advantage that all creatives have—wonder. Far from child’s play, wonder is the one radical quality that has led exemplary people from all walks of life to move toward the fruition of their deepest dreams and wildest endeavors—and it can do so for you, too. “Wonder is a quiet disruptor of unseen biases,” writes Jeffrey Davis. “It dissolves our habitual ways of seeing and thinking so that we may glimpse anew the beauty of what is real, true, and possible.” Rich with wisdom, inspiring stories, and practical tools, Tracking Wonder invites us to explore how the lost art of wonder can inspire a life of greater joy, possibility, and purpose. You’ll discover: The six facets of wonder—key qualities to help you cultivate the art of wonder in your work, relationships, and lifeHow wonder can help us fertilize creativity, sustain the motivation to pursue big ideas, navigate uncertainty and crises, deepen our relationships, and moreThe biases against wonder—moving beyond societal and internalized resistance to our inherent giftsWhy experiencing wonder isn’t really about achieving goals—though that happens—but about how we live each dayInspiring stories of people whose experiences of wonder helped them move through the unthinkable to create extraordinary livesPractical exercises, tools, and reflections to help you begin your own practice of tracking wonder A refreshing counter-voice to the exhausting narrative hyper-productivity, Tracking Wonder is a welcome guide for experiencing more meaning and joy in the present moment as you bring your greatest contributions to life.

Author : Gabriele Bammer
Publisher : ANU E Press
Page : 226 pages
File Size : 27,95 MB
Release : 2010-05-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 1921666374

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Grappling with uncertainties is at the heart of investigating serious crime. At a time when such crime is becoming more complex and resources are increasingly stretched, this book draws together research and practice perspectives to review fruitful approaches to uncertainties and to chart the way forward. Scene setting chapters describe the consequences of globalisation and the spread of sophisticated information technologies (Sue Wilkinson), as well as advances in understanding and managing uncertainty (Michael Smithson). Ways of enhancing responses from statistics (Robyn Attewell), risk analysis (Richard Jarrett and Mark Westcott) and the psychology of decision making (Mark Kebbell, Damon Muller and Kirsty Martin) follow. These are complemented by insights from law (the Hon. Tim Carmody SC), politics (the Hon. Carmen Lawrence) and business (Neil Fargher), which all have significant intersections with policing. Synthesis is provided by the four final chapters which present the outlooks of the investigating officer and investigation manager (Peter Martin), the provider of policing higher education (Tracey Green and Greg Linsdell), the capacity-building consultant (Steve Longford), and the leader of a law enforcement agency (Alastair Milroy).

Author : Bob Miglani
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Page : 155 pages
File Size : 35,93 MB
Release : 2013-10-07
Category : Biography & Autobiography
ISBN : 1609948262

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An accomplished Fortune 50 executive translates for a western audience the lessons he learned from the land of his birth, India. Bob Miglani was stressed out, burnt out, and stuck until he rediscovered the enduring lessons of his childhood: celebrate impermanence, serve others, and move forward no matter what. Bob's message: chaos isn't going away--embrace it!

Author : Millett Granger Morgan
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 376 pages
File Size : 20,43 MB
Release : 1990-08-31
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 113993581X

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The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.

Author : Pema Chödrön
Publisher : Shambhala Publications
Page : 255 pages
File Size : 26,20 MB
Release : 2008
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
ISBN : 1590305558

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Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.

Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 489 pages
File Size : 46,12 MB
Release : 2019-08-13
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 0262353148

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An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.