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China's rise to power from a fallen economy perhaps an important question deals with whether China has been able to convert its rising power into international influence and, if so, whether this influence extends to the international system as a whole or exists on a country-to-country basis. It is widely assumed that China's growing capabilities and activities translate into influence, but the linkage remains assumed and not proven. Evaluating the connection between power and influence should at once help assess the dynamics surrounding China's rise while helping scholars attain a deeper understanding of international relations concepts such as "power transitions" and "great power status." Political and academic discussions often take for granted that growing Chinese power translates into Chinese influence in world politics. The central question in much of the scholarly and policy literature is "what kind of great power is China becoming?" There are, however, at least questions that must be addressed surrounding the nature of "China's rise" before investigating China's great power status as such.
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
In this volume, some of the leading scholars on China's development examine China's responses to the global financial crisis and their implications for China's economy, society, and the international balances of power.
"From Poverty to Power" provides a nuanced analysis of the economic rise of China and the decline of the United States, including the impacts of BRICS, corporate influence on economic policy, sustainability challenges, and the evolving global power dynamics. The main idea of the book is to provide an extensive comparison and analysis of China's economic rise and America's economic challenges. It discusses the historical context and drivers behind China's economic growth and poverty reduction, emphasizing the role of government intervention and state capitalism. Conversely, it examines the predominantly free-market approach of the U.S. economy and its navigation through crises like the 2008 financial meltdown. The book underlines the interdependence between the two economic giants, exploring themes of economic efficiency, debt dynamics, governance, and the socio-political influences on policy formulation. It underscores the importance of responsible governance, innovation, and strategic planning for the U.S. to address economic challenges and achieve long-term sustainability. Key Takeaways China's Economic Ascent: China's rapid economic growth, driven by state-led initiatives and strategic planning, has significantly altered global trade and investment patterns. U.S. Economic Challenges: The United States faces formidable challenges, including trade imbalances, corporate influence on policy, and sustainability issues, amid China's rising influence. BRICS Influence: The emerging power bloc of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is reshaping global economic governance and challenging Western dominance. Corporate Power: Corporate lobbying and influence have a profound impact on U.S. economic policies, often prioritizing corporate interests over public good. Sustainability Issues: Both economic powerhouses face critical sustainability challenges, requiring shifts towards renewable energy, efficient resource use, and equitable growth policies. Global Power Shift: The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world necessitates new strategies for international cooperation, especially amidst China's rise and U.S. economic recalibration. Future Prospects: Navigating these shifts effectively demands a nuanced understanding of the interconnected economic, political, and technological dynamics shaping the 21st-century global order.
Author : Gordon G. Chang Publisher : Random House Page : 368 pages File Size : 31,27 MB Release : 2001-09-15 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 1588360210
China is hot. The world sees a glorious future for this sleeping giant, three times larger than the United States, predicting it will blossom into the world's biggest economy by 2010. According to Chang, however, a Chinese-American lawyer and China specialist, the People's Republic is a paper dragon. Peer beneath the veneer of modernization since Mao's death, and the symptoms of decay are everywhere: Deflation grips the economy, state-owned enterprises are failing, banks are hopelessly insolvent, foreign investment continues to decline, and Communist party corruption eats away at the fabric of society. Beijing's cautious reforms have left the country stuck midway between communism and capitalism, Chang writes. With its impending World Trade Organization membership, for the first time China will be forced to open itself to foreign competition, which will shake the country to its foundations. Economic failure will be followed by government collapse. Covering subjects from party politics to the Falun Gong to the government's insupportable position on Taiwan, Chang presents a thorough and very chilling overview of China's present and not-so-distant future.
How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
China's Crisis of Success provides new perspectives on China's rise to superpower status, showing that China has reached a threshold where success has eliminated the conditions that enabled miraculous growth. Continued success requires re-invention of its economy and politics. The old economic strategy based on exports and infrastructure now piles up debt without producing sustainable economic growth, and Chinese society now resists the disruptive change that enabled earlier reforms. While China's leadership has produced a strategy for successful economic transition, it is struggling to manage the politics of implementing that strategy. After analysing the economics of growth, William H. Overholt explores critical social issues of the transition, notably inequality, corruption, environmental degradation, and globalisation. He argues that Xi Jinping is pursuing the riskiest political strategy of any important national leader. Alternative outcomes include continued impressive growth and political stability, Japanese-style stagnation, and a major political-economic crisis.
A controversial look at the impending Chinese economic collapse—the history behind it, its contemporary causes, and its dire implications for the global economy All the experts agree: the 21st century belongs to China. Given America's looming insolvency and the possibility of the collapse of the U.S. dollar, who can doubt that China is poised to take over the role of economic superpower? Written by political economist and leading financial journalist James Gorrie, this book offers a highly controversial, contrarian view of contemporary China. Drawing upon a wealth of historical and up-to-the-minute data, Gorrie makes a strong case that China, itself, is on the verge of an economic crisis of epic proportions. He explains how, caught in a recurrent boom/bust cycle that has played itself out several times over the past sixty years, China is again approaching total economic and social collapse. But with one important difference this time: they may very well take the entire global economy down with them. Explores the Chinese communist party's unfortunate history of making costly and very bloody mistakes on an enormous scale One-by-one Gorrie analyzes those critical mistakes and explains how they may lead to economic collapse in China and global depression Describes Chinese "cannibal capitalism," and where its massive abuse of the country's environment, people, and arable lands is leading that country and the world economy Chronicles China's history of recurring economic crisis and explains why all the evidence suggests that history is about to repeat itself
This book seeks to demystify the re-ascendancy of China as a civilization state. China's politics and society are examined in the light of its living civilization, which is the only one of the ancient civilizations that has survived to this day. The book also contrasts China's development with that of the West and Japan. By combining the impact of internal political and socio-economic developments in China and its external relations (from the silk routes, the tribute system, to the modern day), it unravels the existing myths, puzzles, and paradoxes surrounding China and questions the adequacy of most of the Western political theories (such as realism in international relations) in an attempt to explicate China's re-emergence as a world power. It attempts to tackle squarely the question: Is China a threat to world order?The book traces the rationale for contemporary developments in China to the roots in the country's tradition as well as foreign influences and seeks to unravel the puzzle about the unique China Model that defies conventional thinking in political economy, with its sustained and incredibly rapid economic growth over the past three decades. This study on China's second rise provides a broad background that includes a meaningful scrutiny of the country's behavior during its first rise (713-1820) and beyond. In comparing China's ongoing second rise with its first ascent, the book not only refocuses on and reinterprets the example set during its first rise, but also takes into account the crucial lessons it learned during its century in eclipse in the interregnum, for the effects they have on the country's current orientation and behavior. The book follows an interdisciplinary approach, combining the cultural, intellectual-historical, normative-ideological, and social-scientific perspectives, to lend a more solid grasp of the present-day China. It ends with an educated speculation, based on the foregoing analyses, on the contours of a Pax Sinica that is likely to result from the impact of China's second rise as a world power.
The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of economic development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in explaining China's rise. This book argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China's growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable despite its current 'backward' financial system and political institutions. Conversely, China's spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental shortcomings of the institutional theory and mainstream 'blackboard' economic models, and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Africa's enduring poverty trap despite radical political and economic reforms, Latin America's lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th century Europe's great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself.