[PDF] Age Of Inference eBook

Author : Philip C. Short
Publisher : IAP
Page : 487 pages
File Size : 22,83 MB
Release : 2021-12-01
Category : Education
ISBN : 1648027997

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In an age where we are inundated with information, the ability to discern verifiable information to make proper decisions and solve problems is ever more critical. Modern science, which espouses a systematic approach to making “inferences,” requires a certain mindset that allows for a degree of comfort with uncertainty. This book offers inspirations and ideas for cultivating the proper mindset for the studying, teaching, and practicing of science that will be useful for those new to as well as familiar with the field. Although a paradigm shift from traditional instruction is suggested in the National Framework for K-12 science, this volume is intended to help educators develop a personal mental framework in which to transition from a teacher-centered, didactical approach to a student-centered, evidence-guided curriculum. While the topics of the book derive from currently published literature on STEM education as they relate to the National Framework for K-12 Science and the Three-Dimensional science instruction embedded in the Next Generation Science Standards, this book also examines these topics in the context of a new societal age posited as the “Age of Inference” and addresses how to make sense of the ever-increasing deluge of information that we are experiencing by having a scientific and properly discerning mindset. ENDORSEMENTS: "This volume takes on one of the thorniest existential problems of our time, the contradiction between the exponentially growing amount of information that individuals have access to, and the diminished capacity of those individuals to understand it. Its chapters provide the reader with an introduction to the relationship between knowledge, science, and inference; needed new approaches to learning science in our new data rich world; and a discussion of what we can and must do to reduce or eliminate the growing gap between the inference have’s and have nots. It is not too much to say that how we resolve the issues outlined in this volume will determine the future of our species on this planet." — Joseph L. Graves Jr., Professor of Biological Sciences North Carolina A&T State University, Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science: Biological Sciences, Author of: The Emperor’s New Clothes: Biological Theories of Race at the Millennium "Big data is not enough for addressing dangers to the environment or tackling threats to democracy; we need the ability to draw sound inferences from the data. Cultivating a scientific mindset requires fundamental changes to the way we teach and learn. This important and well -written volume shows how." — Ashok Goel, Professor of Computer Science and Human Centered Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology. Editor of AI Magazine Founding Editor of AAAI’s Interactive AI Magazine "If you are a science teacher concerned about the implications of information overload, analysis paralysis, and intellectual complacency on our health, economic future, and democracy, then I recommend this book." — Michael Svec, Professor for Physics and Astronomy Education, Furman University, Fulbright Scholar to Czech Republic

Author : Bradley Efron
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 514 pages
File Size : 22,7 MB
Release : 2021-06-17
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1108915876

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The twenty-first century has seen a breathtaking expansion of statistical methodology, both in scope and influence. 'Data science' and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? How does it all fit together? Now in paperback and fortified with exercises, this book delivers a concentrated course in modern statistical thinking. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. Each chapter ends with class-tested exercises, and the book concludes with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science.

Author : Bradley Efron
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 496 pages
File Size : 43,40 MB
Release : 2016-07-21
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1108107958

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The twenty-first century has seen a breathtaking expansion of statistical methodology, both in scope and in influence. 'Big data', 'data science', and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? This book takes us on an exhilarating journey through the revolution in data analysis following the introduction of electronic computation in the 1950s. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. The book ends with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science.

Author : C.S. Wallace
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 456 pages
File Size : 41,70 MB
Release : 2005-05-26
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780387237954

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The Minimum Message Length (MML) Principle is an information-theoretic approach to induction, hypothesis testing, model selection, and statistical inference. MML, which provides a formal specification for the implementation of Occam's Razor, asserts that the ‘best’ explanation of observed data is the shortest. Further, an explanation is acceptable (i.e. the induction is justified) only if the explanation is shorter than the original data. This book gives a sound introduction to the Minimum Message Length Principle and its applications, provides the theoretical arguments for the adoption of the principle, and shows the development of certain approximations that assist its practical application. MML appears also to provide both a normative and a descriptive basis for inductive reasoning generally, and scientific induction in particular. The book describes this basis and aims to show its relevance to the Philosophy of Science. Statistical and Inductive Inference by Minimum Message Length will be of special interest to graduate students and researchers in Machine Learning and Data Mining, scientists and analysts in various disciplines wishing to make use of computer techniques for hypothesis discovery, statisticians and econometricians interested in the underlying theory of their discipline, and persons interested in the Philosophy of Science. The book could also be used in a graduate-level course in Machine Learning and Estimation and Model-selection, Econometrics and Data Mining. C.S. Wallace was appointed Foundation Chair of Computer Science at Monash University in 1968, at the age of 35, where he worked until his death in 2004. He received an ACM Fellowship in 1995, and was appointed Professor Emeritus in 1996. Professor Wallace made numerous significant contributions to diverse areas of Computer Science, such as Computer Architecture, Simulation and Machine Learning. His final research focused primarily on the Minimum Message Length Principle.

Author : Scott Cunningham
Publisher : Yale University Press
Page : 585 pages
File Size : 34,40 MB
Release : 2021-01-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0300255888

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An accessible, contemporary introduction to the methods for determining cause and effect in the Social Sciences “Causation versus correlation has been the basis of arguments—economic and otherwise—since the beginning of time. Causal Inference: The Mixtape uses legit real-world examples that I found genuinely thought-provoking. It’s rare that a book prompts readers to expand their outlook; this one did for me.”—Marvin Young (Young MC) Causal inference encompasses the tools that allow social scientists to determine what causes what. In a messy world, causal inference is what helps establish the causes and effects of the actions being studied—for example, the impact (or lack thereof) of increases in the minimum wage on employment, the effects of early childhood education on incarceration later in life, or the influence on economic growth of introducing malaria nets in developing regions. Scott Cunningham introduces students and practitioners to the methods necessary to arrive at meaningful answers to the questions of causation, using a range of modeling techniques and coding instructions for both the R and the Stata programming languages.

Author : James Allen
Publisher : OUP Oxford
Page : 308 pages
File Size : 39,55 MB
Release : 2001
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9780198250944

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Original and penetrating, this book investigates of the notion of inference from signs, which played a central role in ancient philosophical and scientific method. It examines an important chapter in ancient epistemology: the debates about the nature of evidence and of the inferences based on it--or signs and sign-inferences as they were called in antiquity. As the first comprehensive treatment of this topic, it fills an important gap in the histories of science and philosophy.

Author : Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 503 pages
File Size : 38,50 MB
Release : 2018-09-20
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1108563309

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Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

Author : David J. C. MacKay
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 694 pages
File Size : 31,61 MB
Release : 2003-09-25
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780521642989

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Information theory and inference, taught together in this exciting textbook, lie at the heart of many important areas of modern technology - communication, signal processing, data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, computational neuroscience, bioinformatics and cryptography. The book introduces theory in tandem with applications. Information theory is taught alongside practical communication systems such as arithmetic coding for data compression and sparse-graph codes for error-correction. Inference techniques, including message-passing algorithms, Monte Carlo methods and variational approximations, are developed alongside applications to clustering, convolutional codes, independent component analysis, and neural networks. Uniquely, the book covers state-of-the-art error-correcting codes, including low-density-parity-check codes, turbo codes, and digital fountain codes - the twenty-first-century standards for satellite communications, disk drives, and data broadcast. Richly illustrated, filled with worked examples and over 400 exercises, some with detailed solutions, the book is ideal for self-learning, and for undergraduate or graduate courses. It also provides an unparalleled entry point for professionals in areas as diverse as computational biology, financial engineering and machine learning.

Author : Bradley Efron
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 496 pages
File Size : 11,61 MB
Release : 2016-07-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1107149894

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Take an exhilarating journey through the modern revolution in statistics with two of the ringleaders.